Thunderstorms have also hit Qatar, Oman, the Arabian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman.

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Severe weather warning has been issued in anticipation of powerful thunderstorms from Monday night till late Tuesday.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/582634-dubai-issues-severe-weather-warning

Thunderstorms have already been affecting parts of Qatar, Oman, and Empty Quarter. The strongest storms (to form later) are forecasted to hit the UAE. Chance of hail, high winds, dangerous lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Enjoy the brief break on Sunday and get ready for another BIG round of heavy thunderstorms and rain. But this time, it is going to last for around 24 hours!

A strong cold front is going to arrive to the UAE on Monday (PM) and will result in widespread prolonged periods of rain with periods of heavy rain and heavy thunderstorms. Again, every thunderstorm can be capable of producing hailstones, torrential rain, and strong winds. Northern UAE is at risk, but evey spot in the UAE can get severe weather. Parts of Oman, the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran are also at risk of heavy rain.

Extreme rainfall predicted between Monday PM till late Tuesday March 1-2, 2010

Many areas could again get more than 2 inches of rain, with a strong likelhood of more than 3 inches of rain. I must say I can’t rule out more than 4 inches of rain as well under the influence of monstrous thunderstorms.

Take care and watch out for:

• Torrential rain from thunderstorms and prolonged heavy rain
• Dangerous lightning
• Hailstones
• Damaging winds
• Poor driving conditions
• Large accumulation of water
• Wadis Flashflood

• Torrential rain
• High winds
• Large hailstones
• Dangerous lightinig strikes
• Dangerous road conditions

image source: GulfNews

 And don’t be fooled by the calm weather later on Sunday. It will be far from over.

Satellite IR animation of the huge thunderstorm hitting the UAE on Feb 27, 2010

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

500 mb Low over the Middeteranian

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries with an occluded surface low below it have brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt (and continue to do so). The occluded and warm fronts (shown in purple and red in) are causing rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A 2nd surface low has formed over western parts of the Arabian Peninsula (near Kuwait) right below the upper air trough. Soon the occluded Low will dissipate and the new surface low will be the next weather maker.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. Once it crosses the dry front (dashed black) it will interact with moist air. On Saturday/Sunday it result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong due to high unstability and lifting mechanism. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm. Then the cold front stalls overthere (becoming stationery) and things settle down for a short time, but not for long. 

Rainfall Sat-Sun Feb 27-28, 2010

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter 

The below forecast is preliminary 

Late on Monday/Tuesday , the upper low moves eastward to dive more southward sending waves of energy in the atmoshphere with high levels of unstabiltiy. As a result the cold front regenerates itself and with abundant moisture, a powerful storm system could form over the UAE and Oman (in addition to the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran) where strong thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall could take place. It is still unclear what areas exactly to receive the worst hit. But rainfall amounts could easily exceed 50mm in a few hours with the potential of rain exceeding 100mm under the influence of heavy thunderstorms. Anything from wadis flashflood, hailstorms, damaging thunderstorm winds is possible? Stay tuned for an update. 

Upper low moves eastward by early Wednesday

GFS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

NOGAPS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

Saturday to bring showers and thunderstorms to the UAE and then northen Oman on Sunday.

Late Monday to Tuesday there is risk of very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in parts of the UAE and Oman.

Feb 24, 2010 Update:

It seems that there will be 2 waves of rain affecting the region. The first one being on Saturday with impact on the UAE. There will be possibly some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on parts of the UAE along the Arabian Gulf. Then the impact might move to eastern UAE and Oman early Sunday.

The 2nd wave of rain could contain heavy thunderstorms forming on Monday till Tuesday. Some models predicitng it to hit the UAE and others show Oman as a target. Some models predict the storms to be exceptionally heavy with lots of rain.

Friday could be hot with temperaturs raching 35 with the possibility of a sandstorm. 

In all cases UAE and Oman should keep an eye on the developing weather.

Saturday Feb 27 2010 500mb upper air heights. Tight contours around the UAE.

Tuesday Mar 2nd, 2010 500mb upper air heights. The upper low gets closer to the UAE and Oman

Feb 21, 2010 Update

This post is going to be continuously updated and it is about the possibility of a spring low pressure system that could impact various parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

I’m must emphasize that I’m more than 50% confident of thunderstorm and rain formation somewhere over thr Arabian Gulf sometime between Feb 27 and March 2nd. However, I’m less than 40% sure of the impact on the UAE. The weather models are not agreeing on a certain scenario so far!

We shall wait and see.

Expect very warm weather on Friday Feb 26, as a developing low forces winds to blow from the south, before the potential arrival of an active cold front!

RAK Wadis flooded Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

The cold front that has swept through the UAE and Oman generated a widespread cloud cover with showers in some parts of the UAE. However, in northern UAE especially in Ras Al Khaymah heavy thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooded the wadis there, resulting in 2 casualities and forcing the authorities to rescue more than 300 persons stranded in RAK Wadis. Rainfall amounts exceeded 60mm in some parts of RAK.

Clouds hugging UAE mountains Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

IR Satellite image at 18:30 GMT on Feb 5th, 2010 as clouds appraoch the UAE & Oman

Later the cold front entered Oman and produced widespread rainfall and some heavy storms. Rain extended from northern to southern Oman (Salalah) which rarely receive winter rain. Similar to what happened in the UAE, 2 people died in Oman with many being stranded in Wadis.

The cold front also produced a few showers in Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia before affecting the UAE & Oman. Heavy rain also fell over the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

As the cold front left the region, cooler and gusty conditions (around 50 Km/hr in Bahrain) took place with colder nights with Sharjah airport recording 8c at 7AM on Feb 9, 2010. Other gulf countries experienced cold condition as daytime temperatures struggled to exceed mid teens.

The next several days will be warmer and sunny.

After those hot and dusty winter days, a cold front will affect the UAE on Friday with chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday Feb 5-6, 2010. Higher chance offshore (Arabian and Gulf of Oman), and along the northern coasts.

On Sunday the same cold front could deliver heavy rain to Oman and parts of Eastern UAE.

Cooler weather to follow.

Shamal winds (winds blowing from North, or NW to be accurate) have already started blowing and will increase in intensity during the next 48 hours.  Meteo happiness index raised to 70%. A few highlights:

• Between Wednesday PM to Thursday AM, Arabian Gulf coastal winds will be around 40 Km/h with highest sustained winds reaching 50 Km/h, with the possibilty of gusts hitting 60 Km/h.
• UAE East coast along the gulf of Oman might experience stronger winds due to downsloping of the mountains (winds moving down the slope of the mountains, during which they get faster but also warmer)
• offshore in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, winds will easily exceed 60 Km/h
• Chance of a duststorm
• High temperature will struggle to exceed 22c with the possibity of high temperature not exceeding 19c on Thursday. But in the East coast of the UAE, temperature might still reach mid 20s due to downsloping winds
• Wind chill will make it feel even cooler than the recorded temperature, especially in cities along the Arabian Gulf
• Sea condition will be extremely rough with high waves
• Minimum temperature on Friday and Saturday could fall below 10c in inland areas
• The weather will quickly warm up by the start of next week
• keep in mind the possibilty of winds exceeding the forecasted speed (it happened before) which could result in periods of Gale force winds reaching 70 Km/h; however, it is unlikely
• Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman will all experience cooler weather (probably the coldest this winter) and breezy conditions