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UAE issues Severe Weather Warning

Mar 3rd update:
The cold front hit the UAE with thunderstorms and gusty winds, dumping more than 60 mm of rain in Dhudna and Masafi, and around 50 mm in Ghantout. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah received around 40, 22, and 35 mm of rain.

Thunderstorms have also hit Qatar, Oman, the Arabian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman.

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Severe weather warning has been issued in anticipation of powerful thunderstorms from Monday night till late Tuesday.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/582634-dubai-issues-severe-weather-warning

Thunderstorms have already been affecting parts of Qatar, Oman, and Empty Quarter. The strongest storms (to form later) are forecasted to hit the UAE. Chance of hail, high winds, dangerous lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Heavy Thunderstorms Wreck Havoc on the UAE

The storms resulted in 4 casualties.
 
Extreme thunderstorms in various parts of the UAE have paralyzed life with torrential rain, hail, high winds, and lightning strikes. 
Eastern and Northern emirates including Dubai were hit hard.  Sharjah city received the highest amount of 36 mm of rain in just 2 hours.
Thunderstorms can form anywhere anytime during the next 10 hours. 
In the event of thunderstorms please beware of the potential of: 
 
 

  • Torrential rain
  • High winds
  • Large hailstones
  • Dangerous lightinig strikes
  • Dangerous road conditions
 
 
 
 
 
 

image source: GulfNews

 And don’t be fooled by the calm weather later on Sunday. It will be far from over.

Satellite IR animation of the huge thunderstorm hitting the UAE on Feb 27, 2010

Summer Meets Winter; Showers and Thunderstorms in the UAE & Oman Feb 27-28, 2010; Severe Weather Possible March 1-2, 2010

  

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

500 mb Low over the Middeteranian

500 mb Low over the Middeteranian

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries with an occluded surface low below it have brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt (and continue to do so). The occluded and warm fronts (shown in purple and red in) are causing rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A 2nd surface low has formed over western parts of the Arabian Peninsula (near Kuwait) right below the upper air trough. Soon the occluded Low will dissipate and the new surface low will be the next weather maker.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. Once it crosses the dry front (dashed black) it will interact with moist air. On Saturday/Sunday it result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong due to high unstability and lifting mechanism. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm. Then the cold front stalls overthere (becoming stationery) and things settle down for a short time, but not for long. 

Rainfall Sat-Sun Feb 27-28, 2010

Rainfall Sat-Sun Feb 27-28, 2010

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter 

The below forecast is preliminary 

Late on Monday/Tuesday , the upper low moves eastward to dive more southward sending waves of energy in the atmoshphere with high levels of unstabiltiy. As a result the cold front regenerates itself and with abundant moisture, a powerful storm system could form over the UAE and Oman (in addition to the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran) where strong thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall could take place. It is still unclear what areas exactly to receive the worst hit. But rainfall amounts could easily exceed 50mm in a few hours with the potential of rain exceeding 100mm under the influence of heavy thunderstorms. Anything from wadis flashflood, hailstorms, damaging thunderstorm winds is possible? Stay tuned for an update. 

Upper low moves eastward by early Wednesday

Upper low moves eastward by early Wednesday

GFS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

GFS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

NOGAPS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

NOGAPS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010