A strong sand storm formed on Wednesday Feb 2nd over KSA, with blinding visibility and strong winds.

Sand and dust, in purple color, can be seen over KSA and Iraq.

Monday Jan 30, 2012:

A long-wave upper air trough digs over the Mediterranean, with widespread rainfall over much of Jordan, northern Egypt including Sina’a, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. This time rain is likely to fall over interior areas that are usually dry.

Tuesday Jan 31, 2012:

Rain is expected to extend to northern half of Iraq and western Iran. A new surface low starts to form over northern KSA, with some thundershowers possible over northern red sea coasts of KSA. The low is expected to pull southerly winds ahead of its track, driving temperature upward over all the gulf countries of Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, KSA, and Kuwait. Dusty and gusty winds are possible over central and northern KSA, Kuwait, and northern Arabian Sea (along Kuwait and Iraq) which will become unusually rough. By Tuesday night, a rainy clouds start to develop over parts of KSA and Kuwait. Remaining wet over coastal Mediterranean.

Wednesday Feb 1, 2012:

February to start quite wet over Kuwait as moderate rainfall is expected to fall there including surrounding regions of KSA, parts of Iraq, with heavy rainfall over much of southwestern Iran. Arabian Gulf remains choppy, and remaining wet over coastal Mediterranean. Temperature cools down in Kuwait and northern KSA, but remaining warm over the rest of the gulf countries.

Thursday – Friday Feb 2-3, 2012:

Drying up as cooler northwesterly winds and a surface high gradually build up over KSA, Bahrain, and Qatar by Thursday, before reaching the UAE by Friday. Temperature fall to normal levels. This winter proves to be incredibly dry over the UAE as the impact of this low is minimal over the UAE.

Expected rainfall from Jan 29 to Feb 2, 2012

The recent cold wave brough gusty cool winds over the Arabian Gulf, especially off the UAE coastlines. A cold front and a low pressure developed on Jan 20 before the cold air, which caused some showers over the UAE, northern Oman, the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and Pakistan.

The first few days in February are expected to be rainy over the Mediterranean, KSA, and Kuwait. More updates later!

Here is the daily forecast for the UAE for Jan 20-24 which will be updated frequently.

Friday Jan 20, 2012:

Starting sunny, then becoming mostly cloudy during the day and evening hours over Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. chance of rain over northern UAE during the evening hours. This cloud cover is expected to enter Gulf of Oman by Saturday, where it will develop into a cold front with impact over Gulf of Oman and Pakistan. To read more about the regional weather, click here. By late Friday, cooler northwesterly winds will reach northern Arabia inlcuding Kuwait and northern KSA.

Rain Radar images of the rain showers over UAE during late hours of Friday Jan 20 and early hours of Saturday Jan 21.

Saturday Jan 21, 2012:

AM showers. Clouds to clear by mid-day, becoming windy, significantly cooler, dusty over the gulf including the UAE. Becoming very windy later during the day over the Arabian Gulf and the UAE, especially northern UAE. Very rough sea conditions. Winds in northern UAE might exceed 50 km/hr especially cities from Dubai and northward, and along the east coast as well such as Fujairah where winds descending mountains gain further speed. Much cooler across the gulf countries.

Sunday Jan 22, 2012:

Winds to subside down, but remaining breezy. Cooler weather during the day. In the UAE daytime temperatures will be in late teens, around 5 degrees below normal. Sunday night will be cold over interior areas. Due to interaction of cooler winds over relatively warmer waters of the gulf, some isolated spotty coastal shower is possible as low-level clouds cover the country.

Interaction of cooler air above relatively warmer water of the gulf caused low-level clouds that covered UAE skies on Sunday Jan 22.

Monday Jan 23, 2012:

Remaining cooler than normal. Chance of showers over the UAE coastlines of the Arabian Gulf, mainly over northern UAE. Gulf of Oman and Pakistan to receive more rain.

Tuesday Jan 24, 2012:

Clearing, becoming sunny, breezy, and remaining cooler than normal.

Synoptic weather:

After delivering rain to parts of the Mediterranean and northten Egypt, A mid-level low pressure is expected to move eastward towards southwestern Asian countries of Iran and afghanistan. With surface lows and fronts forming ahead and eastward of the upper lows, rain will fall over Iraq, Iran, then afghanistan, and Pakistan , with a cold front developing over the Gulf of Oman, northern Arabian Sea, southwestern Pakistan by Saturday Jan 21. Colder air along with a surface high will take over westward of the cold front, impacting much of the Arabian Peninsulua.

Colder Air Pushes Through:

Colder air will start making its way to the region by late Friday as windier conditions prevail , and it will be coldest in northern Arabia. Saturday and Sunday Jan 21-22 will be the coolest as daytime temperatures will fall 4-8 degrees below normal. Subsequent days will continue to be below normal, but less extreme. Kuwait and Riyadh daytime temperature on Saturday/Sunday will struggle to go above 12c with nights being quite chilly, possibly going below to -5 degrees. Bahrain and Qatar daytime temperatures will fall to mid-teens with some gusty winds on Saturday. In the UAE, daytime temperatures will be between 17-21 but with very windy conditions, and Muscat to be in early 20s.

A Lot of Winds For Some:

The Arabian Gulf will be the scene of very strong winds on Saturday with very rough sea conditions. Offshore winds will easily go beyond 60 Km/hr. UAE cities will be less extreme, but still gusty winds will blow over the northern coastlines. Winds will be between 40-50 km/hr with occasional gusts to above 50 km/hr. One area of concern is the east coast of the UAE where winds might gust beyond 60 km/hr. Open areas in northern UAE will be prone to localized dust, but coastal areas will experience fresh strong cool winds blowing from the sea. Winds will make it feel even cooler.

Unusual rain areas:

Southwest Pakistan, northern Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Oman will be under the influence of thunderstorms and rain on Saturday Jan 21.

Chance of showers for the UAE:

Small chance isolated rain showers over UAE coastlines between Saturday and Sunday. But the chance increases by Monday as a an upper air trough dives southward over the gulf, bringing some showers to northern UAE.

Clouds can be seen over upper Gulf. Jan 11, 2011.

It will generate some thundershowers while it slowly drifts southeastward and impact other Saudi Arabia cities along the Arabian Gulf coastlines. It might also bring chances of showers over Bahrain and Qatar, otherwise the front will dry up and end up bringing cooler weather on Saturday to mid sections of the Gulf before bring cooler air to the UAE on Sunday. The weather will cool siginifcantly accross KSA by Sunday and will end the recent warming. As for the warming, Jan 12-13 might bring the warmest day this winter over the Gulf countries of UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and KSA. Many interior areas in the UAE and KSA will easily hit 30c. By Sunday, windy weather will prevail over the Arabian Gulf as cooler shamal arrives.

The upper low after moving eastward will generate wet conditions over eastern and southern Iran, afghanistan, and northern half of Pakistan.

Some showers, and some in unusual places

A few isolated thundershowers could affect parts of Saudi Arabia between late Saturday Jan 7 and early Monday Jan 9. The highest chance, although small, is over Jeddah and central parts of central Saudi Arabia that might reach Kuwait and upper parts of the Arabian Gulf. A rather unusual spot for showers will be southest coastal Pakistan and eastern Gulf of Oman on Tuesday.

Wet and Cool for the Mediterranean

A series of cold fronts and low pressures continue to impact the Mediterranean countries, especially the coastlines, with rain and some coastal thundershowers that could sometimes affect northern Egypt. This trend is expected to continue to mid January, after which cooler weather is expected to arrive, bringing temperatures down. This colder air is expected to find its way to the northern Arabian Peninsula around and after mid January.

A sunny start for Winter

Warmer for the Arabian Peninsula, cooler after mid January

Most of the Arabian Gulf countries will experience warmer than normal daytime temperatures up to Jan 12-13. Some cities will be just 1 or 2 degrees above normal such as Muscat, and others will be 5 to 7 degrees above normal such as Kuwait and Riyadh. Temperatures will be in the 20s for most of the Arabian Gulf countries. This in contrast to the fact that January is the coldest month of the year. But temperatures will quickly go from above to below normal after Jan 14, as cold air behind Mediterranean lows moves southeastward. Of course, the impact of the cold air gets eroded by the time it reaches eastern gulf such the UAE and Oman, bringing a much less intense change in temperatures, but still cooler than normal. Daytime temperatures after mid January could fall to early teens over Kuwait and Riyadh, mid teens over Bahrain, late teens over Doha, and early 20s over the UAE and Muscat. The cities that will (not) go much above normal during the next days will be the same ones that will (not) go much below normal after mid January. Somegusty winds are likely to accompany the coldwave over the Arabian Gulf.

After a wet and cool end for November for much of northern and mid Arabian countries, December started dry with cooler-than-normal temperatures over much of Arabia except for the UAE and Oman where the warm water of the gulf tends to moderate the air. In fact, Kuwait recorded a minimum temperature of 1C on Dec 7. Similar near-zero or even sub-zero temperatures have been common over central and northern KSA as well over the last few days.

The weather is starting to “start up” again in a typical way: First a low pressure has to affect the Mediterranean countries before any impacts reaching the Arabian Peninsula. Sometimes, a chain of low pressure affects the Mediterranean with no impacts over the Arabian Peninsula.

Clouds over Turkey from an approaching Midetteranean low. Dec 7 2011

So starting Dec 8 a low pressure will deliver rain to the Mediterranean, before reaching northern Iraq by Dec 9-10 and NW Iran by Dec 11. No impact over Arabia except for cool air settling in again over Kuwait and KSA during the week starting Dec 11.

During the 2nd half of December, there are indications that rain could finally make a comeback to the Arabian Peninsulua, most likey for KSA. It also seems that the last 10 days of December could be the right time for a coldwave with shamal winds over Arabia. Of course, countries like the UAE and Oman don’t really become as cold as Kuwait, KSA, and Bahrain, or even Qatar.

Stay tuned in this slow weather pattern. No matter what it is a pleasant December, and the location of air masses are changing!

While it is definetely cooler, the region (Arabian Peninsula and Middeteranian regions) could be largely dry during the first week of December. There has been several rain systems in the northern and mid Arabian Gulf that brough meaningful rain to Kuwait, KSA, Bahrain, and Qatar. The UAE remained quite dry. Moreover some areas especially in Kuwait and KSA could continue recording lower than average temperatures in the coming days, while areas on eastern Arabian Peninsula such as the UAE could slightly warm up.

Rainfall amounts average 25mm over a large section of KSA, with some areas nearing 50mm. Doha also reported 18mm of rain. It has been exceptionally cool in Riyadh on Tuesday with temperatures not exceeding 10c during a rainy Tuesday. Cool weather with rain also affected Bahrain and Qatar.

Rainfall accumulation up to Thursday Dec 1