Emirates Meteorology Blog

It is far from over.

Enjoy the brief break on Sunday and get ready for another BIG round of heavy thunderstorms and rain. But this time, it is going to last for around 24 hours!

A strong cold front is going to arrive to the UAE on Monday (PM) and will result in widespread prolonged periods of rain with periods of heavy rain and heavy thunderstorms. Again, every thunderstorm can be capable of producing hailstones, torrential rain, and strong winds. Northern UAE is at risk, but evey spot in the UAE can get severe weather. Parts of Oman, the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran are also at risk of heavy rain.

Extreme rainfall predicted between Monday PM till late Tuesday March 1-2, 2010

Many areas could again get more than 2 inches of rain, with a strong likelhood of more than 3 inches of rain. I must say I can’t rule out more than 4 inches of rain as well under the influence of monstrous thunderstorms.

Take care and watch out for:

• Torrential rain from thunderstorms and prolonged heavy rain
• Dangerous lightning
• Hailstones
• Damaging winds
• Poor driving conditions
• Large accumulation of water
• Wadis Flashflood

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

500 mb Low over the Middeteranian

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries with an occluded surface low below it have brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt (and continue to do so). The occluded and warm fronts (shown in purple and red in) are causing rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A 2nd surface low has formed over western parts of the Arabian Peninsula (near Kuwait) right below the upper air trough. Soon the occluded Low will dissipate and the new surface low will be the next weather maker.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. Once it crosses the dry front (dashed black) it will interact with moist air. On Saturday/Sunday it result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong due to high unstability and lifting mechanism. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm. Then the cold front stalls overthere (becoming stationery) and things settle down for a short time, but not for long. 

Rainfall Sat-Sun Feb 27-28, 2010

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter 

The below forecast is preliminary 

Late on Monday/Tuesday , the upper low moves eastward to dive more southward sending waves of energy in the atmoshphere with high levels of unstabiltiy. As a result the cold front regenerates itself and with abundant moisture, a powerful storm system could form over the UAE and Oman (in addition to the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran) where strong thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall could take place. It is still unclear what areas exactly to receive the worst hit. But rainfall amounts could easily exceed 50mm in a few hours with the potential of rain exceeding 100mm under the influence of heavy thunderstorms. Anything from wadis flashflood, hailstorms, damaging thunderstorm winds is possible? Stay tuned for an update. 

Upper low moves eastward by early Wednesday

GFS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

NOGAPS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

Feb 26, 2010 Update:

Saturday to bring showers and thunderstorms to the UAE and then northen Oman on Sunday.

Late Monday to Tuesday there is risk of very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in parts of the UAE and Oman.

Feb 24, 2010 Update:

It seems that there will be 2 waves of rain affecting the region. The first one being on Saturday with impact on the UAE. There will be possibly some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on parts of the UAE along the Arabian Gulf. Then the impact might move to eastern UAE and Oman early Sunday.

The 2nd wave of rain could contain heavy thunderstorms forming on Monday till Tuesday. Some models predicitng it to hit the UAE and others show Oman as a target. Some models predict the storms to be exceptionally heavy with lots of rain.

Friday could be hot with temperaturs raching 35 with the possibility of a sandstorm. 

In all cases UAE and Oman should keep an eye on the developing weather.

Saturday Feb 27 2010 500mb upper air heights. Tight contours around the UAE.

Tuesday Mar 2nd, 2010 500mb upper air heights. The upper low gets closer to the UAE and Oman

Feb 21, 2010 Update

This post is going to be continuously updated and it is about the possibility of a spring low pressure system that could impact various parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

I’m must emphasize that I’m more than 50% confident of thunderstorm and rain formation somewhere over thr Arabian Gulf sometime between Feb 27 and March 2nd. However, I’m less than 40% sure of the impact on the UAE. The weather models are not agreeing on a certain scenario so far!

We shall wait and see.

Expect very warm weather on Friday Feb 26, as a developing low forces winds to blow from the south, before the potential arrival of an active cold front!