More weird weather on the way!

May, a month that is supposed to be dry, one month away from June, the start of summer, will start with a fresh and strong round of thunderstorms and rain over central and NW Arabian Peninsula.

A deep low (typical of late winter) will pass over Turkey and cooler air into northern [...]]]>

More weird weather on the way!

May, a month that is supposed to be dry, one month away from June, the start of summer, will start with a fresh and strong round of thunderstorms and rain over central and NW Arabian Peninsula.

A deep low (typical of late winter) will pass over Turkey and cooler air into northern Arabia, resulting in explosive thunderstorms over a large part of Saudi Arabia. Western Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are also at risk of these thunderstorms. Rain and thunderstorms will also extend to much of Iraq and western Iran. The middeteranian countries and Egypt might also be getting some showers and a few thunderstorms.

God help Saudi Arabia from these monsterous thunderstorms! The probability of flood is there!

Rainfall during the next 7 days. Purple spots indicate heavy rain

Rain in Riyadh

Thunderstorms were forming on more or less a daily [...]]]> April proved to be really wet across a large part of the Arabian Peninsula, mainly over much of central Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have also been affected by periods of thunderstorms.  Iraq and western Iran also got periods of heavy rain/showers/thunderstorms.

Rain in Riyadh

Thunderstorms were forming on more or less a daily basis for at least 3 weeks. And this is not reaching an end yet, thanks to abundant equatorial moisutre coming and weak upper troughs!

But how much rain really fell?

The first map below shows rainfall accumulation/day during the last 30 days. Well, Saudi Arabia got more rainfall than France or Germany! It seems that rainfall was between 50 and 250 mm. And SW Saudi Arabia was hit hard by around 200 mm of flooding rain, which resulted in fatalities.

Rainfall for last 30 days ending on Apr 30, 2010

At the same time, its cold front will extend to parts of the Arabian Peninsula, bringing the risk of thundershowers to Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and especially Saudi Arabia [...]]]> An upper-air low is tracking eastward over Iraq and Iran, causing rainshowers and thunderstorms over many areas in the Middeteranian countries, Iraq, and Iran during the next 48 hours.

At the same time, its cold front will extend to parts of the Arabian Peninsula, bringing the risk of thundershowers to Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and especially Saudi Arabia near the shores of the Arabian Gulf. By Sunday, the weak cold front arrives to the eastern gulf near the UAE, bringing in scattered clouds and a small chance of thundershowers. Before the arrival of the cold front, it will be very hot in the UAE.

Once again on Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper air trough could result in some thunderstorms in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, possibly Kuwait, and the UAE. Afterthat, there is the potential for high winds and cooler air.

An upper low bringing widespread rain to some parts of SW Asia

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries which brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt. There are also rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It [...]]]>

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries which brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt. There are also rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. On Saturday/Sunday it will result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm.  

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter with heavy rain and thunderstorms in the UAE.

Photo of Flood in Egypt (source: storm.ae)

____________________________

This is what I [...]]]> _____
Recap:
There have been more than 10 death cases in Egypt due to the flood in addition to damage to properties. There have also been casualities and/or damage in Palestine, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. There is an unconfirmed report of more than 200mm of rain falling in Sinai.

Photo of Flood in Egypt (source: storm.ae)

____________________________

This is what I like about the weather. There are no strict rules the weather has to follow. The element of surprise is always there, and there could always be extreme weather anywhere in the world. At such times, one wonders if the definition of “average weather” has any meaning at all.

Anyways, extreme weather happens when the right ingredients come at the right time and in the right place, potentially resulting in a natural disaster often in the wrong place. And this time, extreme weather has decided to pay Egypt, one of the driest places on earth, a nasty visit!

Rainfall in Egypt is mainly confined to a narrow area along north coast (i.e. Alexandria) where Middeteranian lows hardly graze the north coasts. While average rainfall along the north coast can reach 200mm per year, rainfall amount drops significantly in interior areas of Egypt, where Cairo hardly received 10mm of rain per year, if nothing at all, due to very dry desert air, which makes all cold fronts very dry ones. South of Cairo, only a trace of rain is recorded, or in most cases no rain at all. Some areas can experience no rain for several years.

Egypt-map

But tomorrow (Sunday Jan 17, 2010), a deep upper low that will dive more southward than normal, drawing with it lots of equatorial moisture, and mixing it with cold air aloft, will result in a wide area of extreme rainfall and strong thunderstorms in the eastern half of the interior region of Egypt. Many areas could exceed 50mm of rain within the span of 24 hours only (if not less than 12 hours). And should strong thunderstorms hit, there could be as much as 100mm or 150mm in those areas. With such a very unstable atmosphere, it is hard to pinpoint exaclty where extreme rainfall will hit, but the NE quadrant of Egypt from all the way from the north coast to the mid interior areas of Egypt could experience very heavy rain. But the mountaineous areas of Egypt should really watch out for runoffs and flash floods. I can’t imagine what exactly will happen in an area that hardly receives 10 mm or no rain per year.

500mb heights Moday 00:00 GMT Jan 17, 2010

Rainfall on Sunday Jan 17, 2010

Rain and thunderstorms will also spread quickly to other countries (that are more accustomed to rain) such as Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and NW Saudi Arabia. It is important to note that all of these areas are prone to very heavy rain as well. However, 2 points make interior areas of Egypt under the spotlight: First, it doesn’t rain there and Second is that extreme rainfall will fall in a very short period of time.

Rainfall on Monday Jan 18, 2010

24-hour forecasted rainfall between 12 GMT [...]]]> A very powerful low pressure weather system is going to impact eastern Egypt (Sinai expecially), Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine and NW Saudi Arabia. There might be severe thunderstorms in Sinai, NW Saudi Arabia,  and very heavy rain in the Middeteranian countries. All of that will happen on Sunday and Monday.

24-hour forecasted rainfall between 12 GMT Sunday to 12 GMT Monday. Notice the extreme rainfall.

Later more low pressure systems to continue impacting Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Jordan until Jan 20 (possibly) with rain accumulation reaching 200mm along the coastal areas (but no impact on NW Saudi Arabia).

I would say the mountaineous areas on NW Saudi Arabia and Sinai areas in Egypt should consider the possibility of flash flood.

Days are getting shorter, and nights are getting cooler as we reach the end of November, announcing the end of Autumn. In the Middle East, the middeteranian countries, Iran, and Iraq have already switched seasons [...]]]> It has been a while since my last post. Weather-wise, so many and not so many things have changed depending on your location!

Days are getting shorter, and nights are getting cooler as we reach the end of November, announcing the end of Autumn. In the Middle East, the middeteranian countries, Iran, and Iraq have already switched seasons with several waves of rain, thunderstorms, some mountain snow, and cold weather during November. However, the Arabian Peninsula countries are still experiencing warm days (albeit pleasant), except for Northern and Saudi Arabia and recently Kuwait where a couple of cold fronts brought scattered thunderstorms, and cooler air reached Kuwait and central interior region of Saudi Arabia. Kuwait had 8c degrees change in high temperature between Nov 17 and 18. From now till mid January, it is going to be a free fall of temperature there.

While the northern parts of the Arabian Gulf (adjacent to Kuwait) had a few thunderstorms, the central and eastern parts of it are yet to see significant changes. Altough in the last few days, thunderstorms formed in the central part of the gulf, they more confined to the northern shores  near Iran even though a few showers reached Bahrain. Therefore the countries of Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE are yet to see full-fledged wet cold fronts.

In the UAE, temperatures have been reducing very gradually. Perhaps the only noticable weather event is the cool nights around mid November with lows reaching 14c due to an upper and dry 500mb low that only reduced night temperature. Rain-wise in the UAE, mountainuous thunder-showers continue to form infrequently due to the warm days, but that should completely stop as we approach winter.

So meteorological winter (Dec) is only 10 days away, and the weather should adjust quickly to reflect that. In fact it seems that a potent trough could bring wet conditions starting from Nov 25 from central Iran to Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Central Saudi Arabia, and ending in the Red Sea. But that remains a forecast for now.

And for those living in the UAE, we need to wait and see whether the days between Sunday Nov 22 and Monday Nov 24 could bring a few thundershowers and clouds as an upper 500mb trough brings cooler air aloft that could trigger a few thunder-showers. Expect fresh winds this week as well.

Stay Tuned for interesting updates.

An upper low is diving southward to the eastern Middeteranian countries will bring rain and thunderstorms to various areas in the Middle East. Between today (Saturday) and Wednesday Nov 4th, 2009, rain and thunderstorms will affect most [...]]]>

Precipitation forecast. Notice the green/blue shading over Kuwait and surrounding areas. Much higher rainfall over the Middeteranian and Iran

An upper low is diving southward to the eastern Middeteranian countries will bring rain and thunderstorms to various areas in the Middle East. Between today (Saturday) and Wednesday Nov 4th, 2009, rain and thunderstorms will affect most of the eastern middeteranian coasts of Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. There will also be rain in NW Iran and parts of Iraq.

But Kuwait and parts of Saudi Arabia (close to Kuwait and northern Arabian Gulf) are set to get their first meaningful rain of the season. There will be clouds and chance of scattered light showers there on Sunday and Monday. But it is not before Tuesday until a very unsettled weather takes over with a cold front moving from southern Iraq to the northern portion of the Arabian Gulf, passing by kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Around 1 inch of rain (25 mm) is possible in Kuwait (if not more). The areas near the middle of the Arabian Gulf may get some clouds/rain. While temperatures are set to decrease in northern Arabia, eastern Arabia continues to experience warm weather. Perhaps the 2nd week of November could bring some changes to other Gulf countries.

Lightninig map, disturbed weather taking over

This has been a short post.