Emirates Meteorology Blog

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

500 mb Low over the Middeteranian

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries with an occluded surface low below it have brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt (and continue to do so). The occluded and warm fronts (shown in purple and red in) are causing rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A 2nd surface low has formed over western parts of the Arabian Peninsula (near Kuwait) right below the upper air trough. Soon the occluded Low will dissipate and the new surface low will be the next weather maker.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. Once it crosses the dry front (dashed black) it will interact with moist air. On Saturday/Sunday it result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong due to high unstability and lifting mechanism. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm. Then the cold front stalls overthere (becoming stationery) and things settle down for a short time, but not for long. 

Rainfall Sat-Sun Feb 27-28, 2010

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter 

The below forecast is preliminary 

Late on Monday/Tuesday , the upper low moves eastward to dive more southward sending waves of energy in the atmoshphere with high levels of unstabiltiy. As a result the cold front regenerates itself and with abundant moisture, a powerful storm system could form over the UAE and Oman (in addition to the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran) where strong thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall could take place. It is still unclear what areas exactly to receive the worst hit. But rainfall amounts could easily exceed 50mm in a few hours with the potential of rain exceeding 100mm under the influence of heavy thunderstorms. Anything from wadis flashflood, hailstorms, damaging thunderstorm winds is possible? Stay tuned for an update. 

Upper low moves eastward by early Wednesday

GFS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

NOGAPS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

RAK Wadis flooded Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

The cold front that has swept through the UAE and Oman generated a widespread cloud cover with showers in some parts of the UAE. However, in northern UAE especially in Ras Al Khaymah heavy thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooded the wadis there, resulting in 2 casualities and forcing the authorities to rescue more than 300 persons stranded in RAK Wadis. Rainfall amounts exceeded 60mm in some parts of RAK.

Clouds hugging UAE mountains Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

  … Continue reading Heavy Thunderstorms Hit Ras Al Khaymah (UAE) and Oman Feb 5-7, 2010 »»»

Shamal winds (winds blowing from North, or NW to be accurate) have already started blowing and will increase in intensity during the next 48 hours.  Meteo happiness index raised to 70%. A few highlights:

• Between Wednesday PM to Thursday AM, Arabian Gulf coastal winds will be around 40 Km/h with highest sustained winds reaching 50 Km/h, with the possibilty of gusts hitting 60 Km/h.
• UAE East coast along the gulf of Oman might experience stronger winds due to downsloping of the mountains (winds moving down the slope of the mountains, during which they get faster but also warmer)
• offshore in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, winds will easily exceed 60 Km/h
• Chance of a duststorm
• High temperature will struggle to exceed 22c with the possibity of high temperature not exceeding 19c on Thursday. But in the East coast of the UAE, temperature might still reach mid 20s due to downsloping winds
• Wind chill will make it feel even cooler than the recorded temperature, especially in cities along the Arabian Gulf
• Sea condition will be extremely rough with high waves
• Minimum temperature on Friday and Saturday could fall below 10c in inland areas
• The weather will quickly warm up by the start of next week
• keep in mind the possibilty of winds exceeding the forecasted speed (it happened before) which could result in periods of Gale force winds reaching 70 Km/h; however, it is unlikely
• Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman will all experience cooler weather (probably the coldest this winter) and breezy conditions