A strong sand storm formed on Wednesday Feb 2nd over KSA, with blinding visibility and strong winds.

Sand and dust, in purple color, can be seen over KSA and Iraq.

Monday Jan 30, 2012:

A long-wave upper air trough digs over the Mediterranean, with widespread rainfall over much of Jordan, northern Egypt including Sina’a, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. This time rain is likely to fall over interior areas that are usually dry.

Tuesday Jan 31, 2012:

Rain is expected to extend to northern half of Iraq and western Iran. A new surface low starts to form over northern KSA, with some thundershowers possible over northern red sea coasts of KSA. The low is expected to pull southerly winds ahead of its track, driving temperature upward over all the gulf countries of Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, KSA, and Kuwait. Dusty and gusty winds are possible over central and northern KSA, Kuwait, and northern Arabian Sea (along Kuwait and Iraq) which will become unusually rough. By Tuesday night, a rainy clouds start to develop over parts of KSA and Kuwait. Remaining wet over coastal Mediterranean.

Wednesday Feb 1, 2012:

February to start quite wet over Kuwait as moderate rainfall is expected to fall there including surrounding regions of KSA, parts of Iraq, with heavy rainfall over much of southwestern Iran. Arabian Gulf remains choppy, and remaining wet over coastal Mediterranean. Temperature cools down in Kuwait and northern KSA, but remaining warm over the rest of the gulf countries.

Thursday – Friday Feb 2-3, 2012:

Drying up as cooler northwesterly winds and a surface high gradually build up over KSA, Bahrain, and Qatar by Thursday, before reaching the UAE by Friday. Temperature fall to normal levels. This winter proves to be incredibly dry over the UAE as the impact of this low is minimal over the UAE.

Expected rainfall from Jan 29 to Feb 2, 2012

Synoptic weather:

After delivering rain to parts of the Mediterranean and northten Egypt, A mid-level low pressure is expected to move eastward towards southwestern Asian countries of Iran and afghanistan. With surface lows and fronts forming ahead and eastward of the upper lows, rain will fall over Iraq, Iran, then afghanistan, and Pakistan , with a cold front developing over the Gulf of Oman, northern Arabian Sea, southwestern Pakistan by Saturday Jan 21. Colder air along with a surface high will take over westward of the cold front, impacting much of the Arabian Peninsulua.

Colder Air Pushes Through:

Colder air will start making its way to the region by late Friday as windier conditions prevail , and it will be coldest in northern Arabia. Saturday and Sunday Jan 21-22 will be the coolest as daytime temperatures will fall 4-8 degrees below normal. Subsequent days will continue to be below normal, but less extreme. Kuwait and Riyadh daytime temperature on Saturday/Sunday will struggle to go above 12c with nights being quite chilly, possibly going below to -5 degrees. Bahrain and Qatar daytime temperatures will fall to mid-teens with some gusty winds on Saturday. In the UAE, daytime temperatures will be between 17-21 but with very windy conditions, and Muscat to be in early 20s.

A Lot of Winds For Some:

The Arabian Gulf will be the scene of very strong winds on Saturday with very rough sea conditions. Offshore winds will easily go beyond 60 Km/hr. UAE cities will be less extreme, but still gusty winds will blow over the northern coastlines. Winds will be between 40-50 km/hr with occasional gusts to above 50 km/hr. One area of concern is the east coast of the UAE where winds might gust beyond 60 km/hr. Open areas in northern UAE will be prone to localized dust, but coastal areas will experience fresh strong cool winds blowing from the sea. Winds will make it feel even cooler.

Unusual rain areas:

Southwest Pakistan, northern Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Oman will be under the influence of thunderstorms and rain on Saturday Jan 21.

Chance of showers for the UAE:

Small chance isolated rain showers over UAE coastlines between Saturday and Sunday. But the chance increases by Monday as a an upper air trough dives southward over the gulf, bringing some showers to northern UAE.

After a wet and cool end for November for much of northern and mid Arabian countries, December started dry with cooler-than-normal temperatures over much of Arabia except for the UAE and Oman where the warm water of the gulf tends to moderate the air. In fact, Kuwait recorded a minimum temperature of 1C on Dec 7. Similar near-zero or even sub-zero temperatures have been common over central and northern KSA as well over the last few days.

The weather is starting to “start up” again in a typical way: First a low pressure has to affect the Mediterranean countries before any impacts reaching the Arabian Peninsula. Sometimes, a chain of low pressure affects the Mediterranean with no impacts over the Arabian Peninsula.

Clouds over Turkey from an approaching Midetteranean low. Dec 7 2011

So starting Dec 8 a low pressure will deliver rain to the Mediterranean, before reaching northern Iraq by Dec 9-10 and NW Iran by Dec 11. No impact over Arabia except for cool air settling in again over Kuwait and KSA during the week starting Dec 11.

During the 2nd half of December, there are indications that rain could finally make a comeback to the Arabian Peninsulua, most likey for KSA. It also seems that the last 10 days of December could be the right time for a coldwave with shamal winds over Arabia. Of course, countries like the UAE and Oman don’t really become as cold as Kuwait, KSA, and Bahrain, or even Qatar.

Stay tuned in this slow weather pattern. No matter what it is a pleasant December, and the location of air masses are changing!

Nov 26 – 27:

Cloudy weather will continue with isolated showers over parts of mid and eastern Arabian Gulf. Those showers might reach coastlines of Bahrain, Qatar, and western UAE.

Rain showers over Bahrain and Mid Arabian Gulf Nov 26.

Cooler weather will prevail over much of the region, bringing pleasant weather conditions.

Nov 19 – 24 Cold Front and Rain:

The subtropical high will move eastward, so will the mid-latitude low. While scatterred showers will linger over Kuwait, Iraq, and western Iran, a cold front will develop by Monday Nov 21 and will start moving eastward as well, bringing cooler air with it. While doing so, the area of scattered showers will gradually move from northen Arabian Gulf on Monday, to mid Arabian Gulf on Tuesday. This will cause scattered thunder showers over coastal Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and then Qatar. Iraq and the mediterranean will dry up. By Tuesday the cold front will move further eastward to impact central Iran and eastern Arabian Gulf. On Wednesday some scattered showers “might” affect parts of coastal UAE and mountainous regions, northern Oman, and Gulf of Oman.

Most of the thundershowers affected UAE islands, with no noticable impact on UAE coastlines. Rainfall reached around 20mm over some UAE islands, and 44mm over Khassab in northern Oman.

Rain Radar on Wedneday Nov 23: Thunderstorms almost made it to UAE coastlines. But they still delivered rainfall to UAE islands.

Current Situation as of Nov 19:

Current temperautres accross the Arabian Gulf countries are above normal as a subtropical high pressure dominates much of the Arabian Peninsula. Meanwhile, a mid-latitude low has been affecting the eastern mediterranean with rain showers and thunderstorms. The areas of SE Iraq, Kuwait, and western Iran have been under this wedge of temperature gradient, under the oppsing air masses of the subtropical high and the mid-latitude low. With favorable surface convergence and upper divergence, clouds and scattered thundershowers have been occuring there as well over the last few days. But things are about to change.

It seems that time will stop moving as the same weather keeps occuring everyday. Some will even feel we have moved backward in time!

Starting late Monday, a mid-level upper low will deepen over the eastern Medeiterranean, and an upper high will take dominance over the northern Arabian Sea.

500mb height lines expected for Nov 15. Contours represent the height in tens of meters. At these heights, the pressure is 500mb. High heigts (pressure) in the Arabian Sea with low heights in the Meditteranea,

The Rainy group:

Rain, showers, thunderstorms, and mountain snow will impact the Medeiterranean coasts of Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Egypt, with some showers reaching parts of Jordan as well.

Meanwhile, a stationery front will form over the northern Arabian Gulf, with some rain and showers over Kuwait, nearby Saudi Arabia, and southern Iraq and Iran. The front will later develop into a cold front, bringing showers and thunderstorms again in the weekend. Some showers might reach Bahrain. But before all that, these same areas will heat up significantly, possibly to early 30s and late 20s.

The dry and warm Sector:

Much of Oman, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain will become suddenly warmer. But nights will remain mild even if days warm.. Daytime temperatures to be in late 20s to early 30s. Kuwait will also heat up until the rain arrives by Tuesday/Wednesday. However, the rest of the Arabian Gulf will remain dry. I guess Oman needs this dry break more than any country. The Arabian Sea will also see an end to its tropical season, giving Oman a much-needed break.

By the start of the next week, the upper low over the Mediterranean will move eastward and the cold front bring cooler air to western half of the Arabian Peninsula.

Rain Radar as of 3:50AM GMT on Nov 7. Showers and some thunderstorms can be seen over the Arabian Gulf, UAE, and Qatar.

The weather has really cooled down over Kuwait and parts of Saudi Arabia with daytime temperatures in mid 20s.

After some rain over the Mediterranean, a developing mid-level low over SW Asia will help cause rain over Iraq from Firday to Sunday and Iran for the next 4-5 days. A weak cold front will develop over the Arabian Gulf. It will cause scattered thundershowers over Kuwait on Saturday and Sunday. The front is expected to slide southeastward over the Gulf, bringing the first rain of the cool season in the form of scattered thundershowers to coastal Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. Some showers might reach the UAE and Oman on Monday and Tuesday. A few thundershowers might bring gusty winds. Significant cooling in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with mild weather over the Arabian Gulf. Sea conditions will also get rough due to wind conditions behind the front.

Lightning strikes near Bahrain at 8 PM GMT on Nov 6, 2011.

Satellite image of Nov 5, 2011. Rain shower can already be seen over Kuwait and Saudi Arabia borders. This is the main boundary area that is expected to develop into a cold front.

Elsewhere, some showers and thunderstorms are expected in Iraq and western Iran during the next few days as an upper low approaches. Upper lows are forecasted to gain more momentum as we head into November and the winter months, and in some years November rainfall in parts of the Arabian Peninsula is quite normal.

Elsewhere in the Meditonerranean, a few showers are possible on Saturday Oct 15 and Sunday Oct 16, with temperatures staying mild and nice. Some showers are possible over northern Iraq on Saturday Oct 15.

A mid-tropospheric high pressure expected to build up

Temperatures have soared accross the UAE and eastern Arabia to unseasonally high levels as most areas recorded extreme temperatures of above 40c. This has been aided by a mid-level high pressure system. In contrast, the Mediterranean is expriencing milder than normal temperautures a mid-latitude low affects the region, which will help cause scaterred showers and thunderstorms during the next 3-4 days over the Mediterranean, Iraq, and possibly parts of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.