Emirates Meteorology Blog

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

500 mb Low over the Middeteranian

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries with an occluded surface low below it have brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt (and continue to do so). The occluded and warm fronts (shown in purple and red in) are causing rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. A 2nd surface low has formed over western parts of the Arabian Peninsula (near Kuwait) right below the upper air trough. Soon the occluded Low will dissipate and the new surface low will be the next weather maker.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. Once it crosses the dry front (dashed black) it will interact with moist air. On Saturday/Sunday it result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong due to high unstability and lifting mechanism. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm. Then the cold front stalls overthere (becoming stationery) and things settle down for a short time, but not for long. 

Rainfall Sat-Sun Feb 27-28, 2010

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter 

The below forecast is preliminary 

Late on Monday/Tuesday , the upper low moves eastward to dive more southward sending waves of energy in the atmoshphere with high levels of unstabiltiy. As a result the cold front regenerates itself and with abundant moisture, a powerful storm system could form over the UAE and Oman (in addition to the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran) where strong thunderstorms and very heavy rainfall could take place. It is still unclear what areas exactly to receive the worst hit. But rainfall amounts could easily exceed 50mm in a few hours with the potential of rain exceeding 100mm under the influence of heavy thunderstorms. Anything from wadis flashflood, hailstorms, damaging thunderstorm winds is possible? Stay tuned for an update. 

Upper low moves eastward by early Wednesday

GFS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

NOGAPS Model Rainfall first late Monday early Tuesday Mar 1-2, 2010

Sunday could bring showers to Kuwait and northern Arabian Gulf, southern Iraq, and southern Iran.

Starting Monday, very cold upper air associated with an upper air low approaching Iran, will unleash more rain and snow over Iran and Iraq.

On Tuesday, this cold front starts crossing the Arabian Gulf region, but sadly, there will be little moisture for this cold front to tap on. Therefore, there will just be some clouds with a small chance of rain in the northern parts of the UAE and Oman.

Between Sunday and Tuesday, it will be very warm in the UAE with near-record highs.

Nevertheless, cold air behind the low is going to suddenly cool the whole region starting Tuesday for northern Arabian Gulf such as Kuwait. On Wednesday, cool air arrives to the UAE and … Continue reading Outlook for the Next 5 Days; Potential for a cold wave and strong winds in the Arabian Gulf Region »»»

A deep 500mb upper low with cold air aloft is quickly diving southward from the Middeteranian towards the Arabian Gulf (from Wednesday Dec 30th to Saturday Jan 2nd). During its track it is going to unleash powerful thunderstorms and heavy rain over western Iran and southern half of Iraq especially the iraq/iran border where more than 2 inches of rain is possible. Thunderstorms (though not as strong) will also erupt over Kuwait and NE Saudi Arabia near the Kuwaiti border. Between Thursday Dec31st and Friday Jan1st, Bahrain and Qatar will have a chance of thundershowers as the upper low dives to the eastern shores of the Arabian Gulf.

500mb low on Jan 1st, 2010

On Friday, the upper low and its associated surface fronts start crossing the UAE … Continue reading Chance of Showers, Thunderstorms, or Rain in the UAE on Friday Jan 1st 2010; Gulf thunderstorms »»»