Emirates Meteorology Blog » Iran

Cyclone Phet Impact (Part 3 of 3)

Ahmed — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 14:56:29 +0000

Floooded Oman

Update:
At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet

Update:
Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well.
Phet also caused high waves along UAE east coast.

Update:
Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman eastern coast. Now it is over the interior regions of eastern Oman. Highest rainfall so far more than 300mm, with Sur getting around 250mm of rain.

Phet inside Oman

Eye of Cyclone Phet is nearing lanfall at Oman Coast

The eye of Phet makes landfall on Oman eastern coast:

Where? Somwhere between north of Masirah island and Sur city. But clouds extending 200 to 300 Km outside the eye will gurantee storm conditions in all of Oman eastern coast regardless whether the eye hits or not. The eye right now is very close to Masirah island and it must be incredibly stormy there now.
When: the eye of Phet will make landfall during the first 12 hours of Friday. But stormy conditions have already started gaining momentum in most of Oman eastern coasts as storm clouds extend at least 200 Km outside of the eye.

Red coastline is prone to a direct hit from the eye of cyclone Phet

How much rain for Oman?
anywhere from 100 mm to 500mm or much more accumulation of rain over Phet path.

Winds?
The eye will pack winds between 150 Km/hr and possibly closer to 200 Km/hr. Many areas of eastern Oman will experience winds around 100 Km/hr.

Tornadoes as well?
Yes why not, cyclones do produce tornadoes sometimes

Storm surge?
High storm surge and huge waves to batter Oman eastern coast. Large waves (but not as severe) could also reach UAE east coast.

What does the eye pack?
The area surrounding the eye (eye wall) contains the higest winds and the strongest thunderstorms (probably right now on earth) with flooding rain and huge storm surge. Wherever the eye hits, it is a total mess.

Looking back at Arabian Sea Cyclones

Ahmed — Tue, 25 May 2010 10:21:09 +0000

The Arabian Sea usually produces a few tropical storms or even cyclones (mainly in May/June/Oct/Nov). The image below shows tropical storms tracks from 1891 to 2007 produced by the Indian Meteorological Dept (IMD).

North Indian Ocean Cyclones Tracks

It is very clear that among the Gulf countries, Oman and Yemen are at higher risk of getting hit by tropical storms or cyclones every year. While the Arabian Sea produces storms annually, Oman and Yemen are not affected every year. Even when they are affected, usually the storms are not severe (tropical storms or depression with winds below 119 Km/hr) and don’t reach cyclone status (winds above 119 Km/hr). However, the amount of rain that falls can be fatal by itself. Moreover, there are exceptions such as Cyclone Gonu which entered Gulf of Oman as a category 1 cyclone, but not before reaching a category 5 status while moving over the Arabian Sea before reaching Oman.

And after Cyclone Gonu shattered records by being the strongest storm in the Arabian Sea and by taking an unusual track into the Gulf of Oman, we need to keep an eye on the Arabian Sea for future storms development. During the next 45 days, chances are that another tropical storm or cyclone could form over the Arabian Sea. Although most of them hit India, we need to remeber the potential of those storms to move to the west or northwest approaching Oman or Yemen.

May 2010 to Start with a Bang in Arabia

Ahmed — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 07:47:28 +0000

More weird weather on the way!

May, a month that is supposed to be dry, one month away from June, the start of summer, will start with a fresh and strong round of thunderstorms and rain over central and NW Arabian Peninsula.

A deep low (typical of late winter) will pass over Turkey and cooler air into northern Arabia, resulting in explosive thunderstorms over a large part of Saudi Arabia. Western Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are also at risk of these thunderstorms. Rain and thunderstorms will also extend to much of Iraq and western Iran. The middeteranian countries and Egypt might also be getting some showers and a few thunderstorms.

God help Saudi Arabia from these monsterous thunderstorms! The probability of flood is there!

Rainfall during the next 7 days. Purple spots indicate heavy rain

April 2010 Above Average Rainfall in Arabia

Ahmed — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 07:30:59 +0000

April proved to be really wet across a large part of the Arabian Peninsula, mainly over much of central Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have also been affected by periods of thunderstorms. Iraq and western Iran also got periods of heavy rain/showers/thunderstorms.

Rain in Riyadh

Thunderstorms were forming on more or less a daily basis for at least 3 weeks. And this is not reaching an end yet, thanks to abundant equatorial moisutre coming and weak upper troughs!

But how much rain really fell?

The first map below shows rainfall accumulation/day during the last 30 days. Well, Saudi Arabia got more rainfall than France or Germany! It seems that rainfall was between 50 and 250 mm. And SW Saudi Arabia was hit hard by around 200 mm of flooding rain, which resulted in fatalities.

Rainfall for last 30 days ending on Apr 30, 2010

What is even more astonishing is the upcoming May storm!

Spring Thunderstorms Continue in Arabia late April 2010

Ahmed — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 13:03:06 +0000

Tropical moisture continues to flow into Arabia, and lows continue to drift over SW Asia, inducing thunderstorms formation over Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. During the next 7 days, it will be the same with effects possibly reaching Bahrain and Qatar.

There are hints that early May will also show a similar pattern; however, that will be extremely abnormal given that May is a very dry month and summer is on the way

Last 7 days rainfall in Arabia

Ahmed — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 15:37:54 +0000

Numerous thunderstorms have affected the Arabian peninsulua with severe storms in SW Saudi Arabia as well as strong storms in Bahrain. There are reports of casualities in Saudi Arabia

Between 100 and 200 mm have fallen over Saudi Arabia

How About Some Summer-like Thunderstorms in Arabia

Ahmed — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 13:21:19 +0000

A few showers and thunderstorms might affect the UAE

________________

Latest rainfall accumulation map

_________

Latest forecasts is calling for heavy thunderstorms to form during the next 7 days (at least) on the middle section of the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait are likely to experience sudden heavy thunderstorms, albeit scattered most likley. The UAE and Oman has a smaller chance later this week.

Iran and Iraq are also prone to showers, rain, and thunderstorms!

____________

An unusual weather pattern is setting over the Arabian Peninsula. Hot weather has already taken over; however, tropical moisture is flowing abundantly via the equator, coupled with a week upper low. All of this is already resulting in some thunderstorms over Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Again on Monday, these thunderstorms will gain power and continue forming randomly making threats to Yemen, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. Starting Tuesday, the UAE and Oman will be exposed to the potential development of such thunderstorms until Friday.

Stay tuned for more updates

Spring Thunderstorms to Affect Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf Countries Apr 7 – 13, 2010

Ahmed — Tue, 06 Apr 2010 18:21:40 +0000

Saudi Arabia is prone to heavy thunderstorms especially April 9 and 10. Thunderstorms could also hit Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and a smaller chance for the UAE and Oman on Sat. Rain showers will also hit Iran and Iraq.

During the next 7 days, scattered thunderstorms could form daily across parts of Arabia, mainly central Saudi Arabia.

Unstable weather could make a return late March in the Gulf

Ahmed — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 13:30:38 +0000

An upper-air low is tracking eastward over Iraq and Iran, causing rainshowers and thunderstorms over many areas in the Middeteranian countries, Iraq, and Iran during the next 48 hours.

At the same time, its cold front will extend to parts of the Arabian Peninsula, bringing the risk of thundershowers to Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and especially Saudi Arabia near the shores of the Arabian Gulf. By Sunday, the weak cold front arrives to the eastern gulf near the UAE, bringing in scattered clouds and a small chance of thundershowers. Before the arrival of the cold front, it will be very hot in the UAE.

Once again on Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper air trough could result in some thunderstorms in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, possibly Kuwait, and the UAE. Afterthat, there is the potential for high winds and cooler air.

An upper low bringing widespread rain to some parts of SW Asia

More storms and heavy rain in the UAE on Monday – Tuesday March 1-2, 2010 – Watch out for severe weather

Ahmed — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 05:35:03 +0000

The UAE is getting ready for another round of thunderstorms!

A strong cold front is going to arrive to the UAE on Monday (PM) and will result in widespread periods of rain with periods of heavy rain and heavy thunderstorms. Again, every thunderstorm can be capable of producing hailstones, torrential rain, and strong winds. Northern UAE is at risk, but evey spot in the UAE can get severe weather. Parts of Oman, the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran are also at risk of heavy rain.=”text-align: center;”>

Rainfall forecast. Dark blue indicates heavy rain.