Emirates Meteorology Blog » Gulf of Oman

Summer Rain in Parts of the UAE; Al Ain Strong Thunderstorm

Ahmed — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 15:03:58 +0000

Al Ain during the storm (Image Source: Storm.ae)

Oman and parts of the UAE under cloud cover

Tropical clouds from the Arabian Sea Monsoon, extending from India, have sent waves of tropical clouds and moisture over Oman and parts of UAE, mainly southeast areas. With abundant heat and moisture, thunderstorms have erupted over Hajar mountains on July 8th, east and southeast of Al-Ain, then moved westward and hit Al-Ain with high winds, hail, and heavy rain. Winds gusted up to 114 Km/hr! Temperature decreased to 29c or less during the storm

The rainy clouds are covering a widespread area of southeast UAE near Oman border. The situation is expected to remain more or less the same until Saturday July 10th.

Rain Radar showing areas of rain over SE UAE

Summer Rain Possible for Oman July 7-10, 2010

Ahmed — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 13:42:30 +0000

Clouds and moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, extending from India, could cover parts of Oman, especially coastal areas. These clouds could deliver a few showers and thunderstorms, or at least cloudy tropical conditions for a couple of days. Such an occurence is normal for this time of the year as Monsoon reaches its peak intensity over the Arabian Sea and India, resulting in such clouds extending to Eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

Clouds could extend to parts of the UAE especially the Eastern coast where periods of cloudy conditions could prevail, with a very small chance of odd drizzles or showers. However, Hajar mountains (over Oman and the UAE) will also see increased chance of thunderstorm activity.

Cyclone Phet Impact (Part 3 of 3)

Ahmed — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 14:56:29 +0000

Floooded Oman

Update:
At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet

Update:
Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well.
Phet also caused high waves along UAE east coast.

Update:
Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman eastern coast. Now it is over the interior regions of eastern Oman. Highest rainfall so far more than 300mm, with Sur getting around 250mm of rain.

Phet inside Oman

Eye of Cyclone Phet is nearing lanfall at Oman Coast

The eye of Phet makes landfall on Oman eastern coast:

Where? Somwhere between north of Masirah island and Sur city. But clouds extending 200 to 300 Km outside the eye will gurantee storm conditions in all of Oman eastern coast regardless whether the eye hits or not. The eye right now is very close to Masirah island and it must be incredibly stormy there now.
When: the eye of Phet will make landfall during the first 12 hours of Friday. But stormy conditions have already started gaining momentum in most of Oman eastern coasts as storm clouds extend at least 200 Km outside of the eye.

Red coastline is prone to a direct hit from the eye of cyclone Phet

How much rain for Oman?
anywhere from 100 mm to 500mm or much more accumulation of rain over Phet path.

Winds?
The eye will pack winds between 150 Km/hr and possibly closer to 200 Km/hr. Many areas of eastern Oman will experience winds around 100 Km/hr.

Tornadoes as well?
Yes why not, cyclones do produce tornadoes sometimes

Storm surge?
High storm surge and huge waves to batter Oman eastern coast. Large waves (but not as severe) could also reach UAE east coast.

What does the eye pack?
The area surrounding the eye (eye wall) contains the higest winds and the strongest thunderstorms (probably right now on earth) with flooding rain and huge storm surge. Wherever the eye hits, it is a total mess.

Cyclone “Phet” in the Arabian Sea (Part 2 of 3)

Ahmed — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 11:48:11 +0000

Jun 3rd 10AM GMT update:
Phet clouds have started bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to a large part of coastal Oman especially Masirah island. Dangerous weather conditions to affect the area there.

Most models predict Phet to move NE soon after entering Oman, but there are signs from US models it will continue moving NW, multiplying the amount of rain falling over Oman.

Jun 3 9AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on the eastern coast of Oman (as a category2-4) Friday AM around the area of Maisrah island, then its expected to move over the coast towards Sur. But heavy rain and high winds will extend 200 or 300 Km around the eye.

Jun 3 4AM GMT update
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on Oman eastern coast tonight (thu Jun 3) as a weaker category 2 or 3 cyclone but still very dangerous.

June2, 3PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to hit Oman as a full fledged category 3-5 cyclones with destruction possible around the path of the eye.

Phet updated track

Jun 2, 1PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to graze Oman coast as a category 5 cyclone. Even if the eye (which packs winds more than 220 Km/hr) stays offshore, the clouds extending out of the cyclone will hit easternmost Oman. There is a small possibility that the eye makes landfall over easternmost Oman, bringing deadly weather conditions!

June 2, 8AM GMT:
Cyclone Phet (category 3 now) and will reach category 4 on Thu Jun 3, 2010.

Phet will either
1- move NW very close to Oman easternmost coast, bring heavy rain, high winds, and high waves to easternmost Oman, or
2- make landfall over easternmost coast of Oman with destructive winds, flooding rain, and significant storm surge to a large part of eastern Oman.

June 2, 6AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet will soon be a category 4 cyclone. Potential impact on Oman.

Cyclone Phet is expected to take one of 2 possible scenarios:
1- stay offshore Oman coast and curve NE towarda pakistan
2- continue moving NW and make landfall on Oman east coast, before curving NE towarda Pakistan

Nevertheless, Oman east coast is under the threat of heavy rain, gusty winds, and high waves even if the cyclone stays offshore.

June 1st evening update:
Tropical storm Phet in the Arabian Sea is now upgraded to a cyclone . It packs winds of 120 km/hr or more around its centre. Pakistan and india are likely targets. But I can’t rule out a few side effects on Oman.

June 1 st update:
Cyclone Phet will continue moving N/NW during the next 24 hours, before curving NE towards Pakistan/Indian coasts. It is expected to strengthen to potentially category 2 cyclone. Wherever the eye makes landfall, severe damage due to destructive winds and flooding rain is possible. Meanwhile, easternmost of Oman could get affected by some rainy clouds, fresh winds, and high waves.

Cyclone Phet and its eye

June 2, 8AM GMT:

Looking back at Arabian Sea Cyclones

Ahmed — Tue, 25 May 2010 10:21:09 +0000

The Arabian Sea usually produces a few tropical storms or even cyclones (mainly in May/June/Oct/Nov). The image below shows tropical storms tracks from 1891 to 2007 produced by the Indian Meteorological Dept (IMD).

North Indian Ocean Cyclones Tracks

It is very clear that among the Gulf countries, Oman and Yemen are at higher risk of getting hit by tropical storms or cyclones every year. While the Arabian Sea produces storms annually, Oman and Yemen are not affected every year. Even when they are affected, usually the storms are not severe (tropical storms or depression with winds below 119 Km/hr) and don’t reach cyclone status (winds above 119 Km/hr). However, the amount of rain that falls can be fatal by itself. Moreover, there are exceptions such as Cyclone Gonu which entered Gulf of Oman as a category 1 cyclone, but not before reaching a category 5 status while moving over the Arabian Sea before reaching Oman.

And after Cyclone Gonu shattered records by being the strongest storm in the Arabian Sea and by taking an unusual track into the Gulf of Oman, we need to keep an eye on the Arabian Sea for future storms development. During the next 45 days, chances are that another tropical storm or cyclone could form over the Arabian Sea. Although most of them hit India, we need to remeber the potential of those storms to move to the west or northwest approaching Oman or Yemen.

UAE issues Severe Weather Warning

Ahmed — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 16:24:30 +0000

Severe weather warning has been issued in anticipation of powerful thunderstorms from Monday night till late Tuesday.

The cold front hit the UAE with thunderstorms and gusty winds, dumping more than 60 mm of rain in Dhudna and Masafi, and around 50 mm in Ghantout. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah received around 40, 22, and 35 mm of rain.

Thunderstorms have also hit Qatar, Oman, the Arabian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman.

Image source: Gulfnews.com

Summer Meets Winter; Showers and Thunderstorms in the UAE & Oman Feb 27-28, 2010; Severe Weather Possible March 1-2, 2010

Ahmed — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 12:38:55 +0000

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries which brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt. There are also rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. On Saturday/Sunday it will result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm.

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter with heavy rain and thunderstorms in the UAE.

Speculation of the next Low in Arabia

Ahmed — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 13:25:43 +0000

Feb 26, 2010 Update:

Saturday to bring showers and thunderstorms to the UAE and then northen Oman on Sunday.

Late Monday to Tuesday there is risk of very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in parts of the UAE and Oman.

Feb 24, 2010 Update:

It seems that there will be 2 waves of rain affecting the region. The first one being on Saturday with impact on the UAE. There will be possibly some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on parts of the UAE along the Arabian Gulf. Then the impact might move to eastern UAE and Oman early Sunday.

The 2nd wave of rain could contain heavy thunderstorms forming on Monday till Tuesday. Some models predicitng it to hit the UAE and others show Oman as a target. Some models predict the storms to be exceptionally heavy with lots of rain.

Friday could be hot with temperaturs raching 35 with the possibility of a sandstorm.

In all cases UAE and Oman should keep an eye on the developing weather.

Saturday Feb 27 2010 500mb upper air heights. Tight contours around the UAE.

Tuesday Mar 2nd, 2010 500mb upper air heights. The upper low gets closer to the UAE and Oman

Feb 21, 2010 Update

This post is going to be continuously updated and it is about the possibility of a spring low pressure system that could impact various parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

I’m must emphasize that I’m more than 50% confident of thunderstorm and rain formation somewhere over thr Arabian Gulf sometime between Feb 27 and March 2nd. However, I’m less than 40% sure of the impact on the UAE. The weather models are not agreeing on a certain scenario so far!

We shall wait and see.

Expect very warm weather on Friday Feb 26, as a developing low forces winds to blow from the south, before the potential arrival of an active cold front!

Heavy Thunderstorms Hit Ras Al Khaymah (UAE) and Oman Feb 5-7, 2010

Ahmed — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:38:41 +0000

RAK Wadis flooded Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

The cold front that has swept through the UAE and Oman generated a widespread cloud cover with showers in some parts of the UAE. However, in northern UAE especially in Ras Al Khaymah heavy thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooded the wadis there, resulting in 2 casualities and forcing the authorities to rescue more than 300 people stranded in RAK Wadis. Rainfall amounts exceeded 60mm in some parts of RAK.

Clouds hugging UAE mountains Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

IR Satellite image at 18:30 GMT on Feb 5th, 2010 as clouds appraoch the UAE & Oman

Later the cold front entered Oman and produced widespread rainfall and some heavy storms. Rain extended from northern to southern Oman (Salalah) which rarely receives winter rain. Similar to what happened in the UAE, 2 people died in Oman with many being stranded in Wadis.

The cold front also produced a few showers in Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia before affecting the UAE & Oman. Heavy rain also fell over the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

As the cold front left the region, cooler and gusty conditions (around 50 Km/hr in Bahrain) took place with colder nights with Sharjah airport recording 8c at 7AM on Feb 9, 2010. Other gulf countries experienced cold conditions as daytime temperatures struggled to exceed mid teens.

A cold front to bring showers to the UAE and heavy rain to Oman Feb 5 – 7, 2010

Ahmed — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 13:59:58 +0000

After those hot and dusty winter days, a cold front will affect the UAE on Friday with chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday Feb 5-6, 2010. Higher chance offshore (Arabian and Gulf of Oman), and along the northern coasts.

On Sunday the same cold front could deliver heavy rain to Oman and parts of Eastern UAE.

Cooler weather to follow.