Update: At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet

Update: Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well. Phet also caused high waves [...]]]>

Floooded Oman

Update:
At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet

Update:
Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well.
Phet also caused high waves along UAE east coast.

Update:
Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman eastern coast. Now it is over the interior regions of eastern Oman. Highest rainfall so far more than 300mm, with Sur getting around 250mm of rain.

Phet inside Oman

Eye of Cyclone Phet is nearing lanfall at Oman Coast

The eye of Phet makes landfall on Oman eastern coast:

Where? Somwhere between north of Masirah island and Sur city. But clouds extending 200 to 300 Km outside the eye will gurantee storm conditions in all of Oman eastern coast regardless whether the eye hits or not. The eye right now is very close to Masirah island and it must be incredibly stormy there now.
When: the eye of Phet will make landfall during the first 12 hours of Friday. But stormy conditions have already started gaining momentum in most of Oman eastern coasts as storm clouds extend at least 200 Km outside of the eye.

Red coastline is prone to a direct hit from the eye of cyclone Phet

How much rain for Oman?
anywhere from 100 mm to 500mm or much more accumulation of rain over Phet path.

Winds?
The eye will pack winds between 150 Km/hr and possibly closer to 200 Km/hr. Many areas of eastern Oman will experience winds around 100 Km/hr.

Tornadoes as well?
Yes why not, cyclones do produce tornadoes sometimes

Storm surge?
High storm surge and huge waves to batter Oman eastern coast. Large waves (but not as severe) could also reach UAE east coast.

What does the eye pack?
The area surrounding the eye (eye wall) contains the higest winds and the strongest thunderstorms (probably right now on earth) with flooding rain and huge storm surge. Wherever the eye hits, it is a total mess.

Jun 3rd 10AM GMT update: Phet clouds have started bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to a large part of coastal Oman especially Masirah island. Dangerous weather conditions to affect the area there.

Most models predict Phet to move NE soon after entering Oman, but there are signs from US models it will continue moving NW, multiplying the [...]]]>

Jun 3rd 10AM GMT update:
Phet clouds have started bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to a large part of coastal Oman especially Masirah island. Dangerous weather conditions to affect the area there.

Most models predict Phet to move NE soon after entering Oman, but there are signs from US models it will continue moving NW, multiplying the amount of rain falling over Oman.

Jun 3 9AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on the eastern coast of Oman (as a category2-4) Friday AM around the area of Maisrah island, then its expected to move over the coast towards Sur. But heavy rain and high winds will extend 200 or 300 Km around the eye.

Jun 3 4AM GMT update
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on Oman eastern coast tonight (thu Jun 3) as a weaker category 2 or 3 cyclone but still very dangerous.

June2, 3PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to hit Oman as a full fledged category 3-5 cyclones with destruction possible around the path of the eye.

Phet updated track

 

 

Jun 2, 1PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to graze Oman coast as a category 5 cyclone. Even if the eye (which packs winds more than 220 Km/hr) stays offshore, the clouds extending out of the cyclone will hit easternmost Oman. There is a small possibility that the eye makes landfall over easternmost Oman, bringing deadly weather conditions!

 

June 2, 8AM GMT:
Cyclone Phet (category 3 now) and will reach category 4 on Thu Jun 3, 2010.

Phet will either
1- move NW very close to Oman easternmost coast, bring heavy rain, high winds, and high waves to easternmost Oman, or
2- make landfall over easternmost coast of Oman with destructive winds, flooding rain, and significant storm surge to a large part of eastern Oman.

June 2, 6AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet will soon be a category 4 cyclone. Potential impact on Oman.

Cyclone Phet is expected to take one of 2 possible scenarios:
1- stay offshore Oman coast and curve NE towarda pakistan
2- continue moving NW and make landfall on Oman east coast, before curving NE towarda Pakistan

Nevertheless, Oman east coast is under the threat of heavy rain, gusty winds, and high waves even if the cyclone stays offshore.

June 1st evening update:
Tropical storm Phet in the Arabian Sea is now upgraded to a cyclone . It packs winds of 120 km/hr or more around its centre. Pakistan and india are likely targets. But I can’t rule out a few side effects on Oman.

June 1 st update:
Cyclone Phet will continue moving N/NW during the next 24 hours, before curving NE towards Pakistan/Indian coasts. It is expected to strengthen to potentially category 2 cyclone. Wherever the eye makes landfall, severe damage due to destructive winds and flooding rain is possible. Meanwhile, easternmost of Oman could get affected by some rainy clouds, fresh winds, and high waves.

Cyclone Phet and its eye

June 2, 8AM GMT:

Update: May 25, 2010

Tropical Storm Bandu has subsided and faded away after entering the Gulf of Aden. Most of the rain fell mainly offshore. Some heavy rain fell over Yemen. However, Yemen escaped the worst of the storm even though damages to some villages were reported to be severe.

Update: May 25, 2010

Tropical Storm Bandu has subsided and faded away after entering the Gulf of Aden. Most of the rain fell mainly offshore. Some heavy rain fell over Yemen. However, Yemen escaped the worst of the storm even though damages to some villages were reported to be severe.

Nevertheless, Tropical Storm Bandu did take  somehow an unusual track by entering tge Gulf of Aden as very few storms did so. Are Arabian Sea Tropical storms/cyclones becoming more invasive after entering Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Oman in 2007!?

_____________

A tropical cyclone (named Bandu) has been churning in the southern Arabian Sea for the last few days off the coast of Somalia. The Arabian Sea forms part of the North Indian ocean, which has seen two cyclones form in the last five days. The first being cyclone Laila in the Bay of Bengal which has already affected the eastern coast of India, and the second storm is in the Arabian Sea.

 

Satellite View of Tropical Storm Bandu (May 21, 2010)

Currently the cyclone packs winds of 105 km/hr around the eye of the storm with gusts of 130 Km/hr. The cyclone is very close to becoming a category 1 cyclone of winds of 119 Km/hr. The storm is currently unleashing heavy rain in Socatra. The system is expected to move into the Gulf of Aden with a potential landing on the eastern coast of Yemen. However, it is expected to weaken by the time it reaches Yemen. But, it might deliver heavy rain, floods, and gusty winds.

Tropical Storm Bandu Forecasted Track

Severe weather warning has been issued in anticipation of powerful thunderstorms from Monday night till late Tuesday.

The cold front hit the UAE with thunderstorms and gusty winds, dumping more than 60 mm of rain in Dhudna and Masafi, and around 50 mm in Ghantout. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah received around 40, 22, and 35 mm [...]]]>

Severe weather warning has been issued in anticipation of powerful thunderstorms from Monday night till late Tuesday.

The cold front hit the UAE with thunderstorms and gusty winds, dumping more than 60 mm of rain in Dhudna and Masafi, and around 50 mm in Ghantout. Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah received around 40, 22, and 35 mm of rain.

Thunderstorms have also hit Qatar, Oman, the Arabian Gulf, and Gulf of Oman.

Image source: Gulfnews.com

See youtube videos of the storm here and here.

RAK Wadis flooded Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

The cold front that has swept through the UAE and Oman generated a widespread cloud cover with showers in some parts of the UAE. However, in northern UAE especially in Ras Al Khaymah heavy thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooded the wadis there, [...]]]>

RAK Wadis flooded Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

The cold front that has swept through the UAE and Oman generated a widespread cloud cover with showers in some parts of the UAE. However, in northern UAE especially in Ras Al Khaymah heavy thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flooded the wadis there, resulting in 2 casualities and forcing the authorities to rescue more than 300 people stranded in RAK Wadis. Rainfall amounts exceeded 60mm in some parts of RAK.

Clouds hugging UAE mountains Feb 6 2010 (image source: GulfNews)

 

IR Satellite image at 18:30 GMT on Feb 5th, 2010 as clouds appraoch the UAE & Oman

Later the cold front entered Oman and produced widespread rainfall and some heavy storms. Rain extended from northern to southern Oman (Salalah) which rarely receives winter rain. Similar to what happened in the UAE, 2 people died in Oman with many being stranded in Wadis.

The cold front also produced a few showers in Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia before affecting the UAE & Oman. Heavy rain also fell over the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

As the cold front left the region, cooler and gusty conditions (around 50 Km/hr in Bahrain) took place with colder nights with Sharjah airport recording 8c at 7AM on Feb 9, 2010. Other gulf countries experienced cold conditions as daytime temperatures struggled to exceed mid teens.

Extreme northern UAE could get 10mm of rain (GFS) between 4PM Friday to 4PM Saturday

Bahrain and Qatar are likely to get affected by this cold front as [...]]]> A cold front coming from the northwest could result in a few showers and thunder-showers over the UAE late Friday and early Saturday. Higest chance is over northern UAE.

Extreme northern UAE could get 10mm of rain (GFS) between 4PM Friday to 4PM Saturday

Bahrain and Qatar are likely to get affected by this cold front as thunderstorms rumble through the Arabian Gulf across the cold front. Possible impact in Kuwait and parts of Saudi Arabia near the Arabian Gulf.

Lightning map as of 4:30 GMT Fri Dec 18, 2009

Parts of Saudi Arabia have seen intense thunderstorms today on Nov 25 with Jeddah receiving 70mm [...]]]> A very potent low pressure system has started forming over the Arabian Peninsula and Southwest Asia. The low pressure system will have a widespread effect over Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Southern Iraq, Iran, Bahrain, Qatar, and then possibly the UAE and Oman.

Parts of Saudi Arabia have seen intense thunderstorms today on Nov 25 with Jeddah receiving 70mm in less than 12 hours as thunderstorms exapand to the holy city of Mecca. There are reports of death cases in Jeddah due to the flood. We should all pray for the safety of all people and pilgrims currently in Saudi Arabia.

Storms rumbling through Saudi Arabia

This low pressure system is set to intensify further and produce heavy rain over the northern portion of the Arabian Gulf including surrounding cities in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for at least 3 days (Thursday to Saturday). Later the associated cold front of the system is forecasted to arrive into the UAE bringing thundershowers and cooler air with it.World Meteorological Organization listed Jeddah as a severe weather are with 70mm of rain.

An upper low is diving southward to the eastern Middeteranian countries will bring rain and thunderstorms to various areas in the Middle East. Between today (Saturday) and Wednesday Nov 4th, 2009, rain and thunderstorms will affect most [...]]]>

Precipitation forecast. Notice the green/blue shading over Kuwait and surrounding areas. Much higher rainfall over the Middeteranian and Iran

An upper low is diving southward to the eastern Middeteranian countries will bring rain and thunderstorms to various areas in the Middle East. Between today (Saturday) and Wednesday Nov 4th, 2009, rain and thunderstorms will affect most of the eastern middeteranian coasts of Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. There will also be rain in NW Iran and parts of Iraq.

But Kuwait and parts of Saudi Arabia (close to Kuwait and northern Arabian Gulf) are set to get their first meaningful rain of the season. There will be clouds and chance of scattered light showers there on Sunday and Monday. But it is not before Tuesday until a very unsettled weather takes over with a cold front moving from southern Iraq to the northern portion of the Arabian Gulf, passing by kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Around 1 inch of rain (25 mm) is possible in Kuwait (if not more). The areas near the middle of the Arabian Gulf may get some clouds/rain. While temperatures are set to decrease in northern Arabia, eastern Arabia continues to experience warm weather. Perhaps the 2nd week of November could bring some changes to other Gulf countries.

Lightninig map, disturbed weather taking over

This has been a short post.

500 mb heights as of 0000 GMT Sat Oct 24, 2009 (GFS)

__________

Over the next [...]]]> It has been quite unsettled in the northwest areas of Saudi Arabia for the last 24 hours with several thunderstorms. This is due to plunging jet stream associated with a 500mb low that brought cooler air aloft. Thunderstorms have also affected Iraq

500 mb heights as of 0000 GMT Sat Oct 24, 2009 (GFS)

__________

Over the next few days, the risk of scaterred thunderstorms will still be there over NW Saudi Arabia, parts of Iraq, and western Iran. But by the end of next week and around Oct 30 and 31, a much stronger cold front with more widespread rain and thunderstorms could affect NW Saudi Arabia (and Iraq and Iran). The forecast might change, but it should be watched!

Precipitation forecast for Sat Oct 31 2009