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The Next Arabian Sea Cyclone – Phet (Part 1 of 3)

May 30, 2010

A tropical depression has formed in the Arabian Sea and is being monitored for potential tropical development.

Tropical Depression in Arabian Sea

May 29, 2010:

There is an increased confidence that a tropical storm might form in the Arabian Sea during the next 5 days. More details later

May 28, 2010

There are hints from at least a couple of models (GFS and ECMWF) that the Arabian Sea might produce a tropical storm or even a cyclone in southeast Arabian Sea! The storm is shown to move northwest.

A majority of the models seemed to suggest that the system could be declared a cyclone by June 2 over east-central Arabian Sea (thehindubusinessline)

It is a wait game. We need to wait and see how persistent weather forecasts and models remain with regard to such a forecast. We also need to wait and see whether a low pressure systems starts organizing in SE Arabian Sea on or around May 30-31, 2010.  The Arabian Sea often produces tropical storms, but is not considered very active when it comes to cyclones and tropical storms. Storms there are few and often weak and short-lived. However, strong storms do develop, albeit infrequently.

All countries along the shores of the Arabian Sea need to keep an eye on the potential for a cyclonic development during the next 5 to 7 days and subsequently the track it might take.

May 2010 to Start with a Bang in Arabia

More weird weather on the way!

May, a month that is supposed to be dry, one month away from June, the start of summer, will start with a fresh and strong round of thunderstorms and rain over central and NW Arabian Peninsula.

A deep low (typical of late winter) will pass over Turkey and cooler air into northern Arabia, resulting in explosive thunderstorms over a large part of Saudi Arabia. Western Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are also at risk of these thunderstorms. Rain and thunderstorms will also extend to much of Iraq and western Iran. The middeteranian countries and Egypt might also be getting some showers and a few thunderstorms.

God help Saudi Arabia from these monsterous thunderstorms! The probability of flood is there!

Rainfall during the next 7 days

Rainfall during the next 7 days. Purple spots indicate heavy rain

Spring Thunderstorms Continue in Arabia late April 2010

Tropical moisture continues to flow into Arabia, and lows continue to drift over SW Asia, inducing thunderstorms formation over Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. During the next 7 days, it will be the same with effects possibly reaching Bahrain and Qatar.

There are hints that early May will also show a similar pattern; however, that will be extremely abnormal given that May is a very dry month and summer is on the way