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Huge t-storm cloud over Abu Dhabi City 6:30 am. UAE. Dec 7, 2008. By Alya

Cumulus Nimbus cloud formation over Eastern Regions as seen from Al Nahda, Sharjah at 3:30pm 8th May 2012 . By Umair Ahmed (Addy)

Clouds and sunset on a Winter day. Feb 16, 2005.

Dec 6 2008: Several thunderstorms formed. The main catalyst was that the Arabian gulf was still very warm, but the air above it cooled. This created locally unstable conditions mainly over the Arabian Gulf, where thunderstorms were frequently forming, and hitting the coastlines of the UAE. Inland areas in the UAE were not lucky, as the temperature difference between the surface and air above was not strong enough. Over the arabian gulf, surface convergence of winds created some cumulus clouds. As the warm air was rising from the water surface, it was much warmer in comparison to cooler air around from the cold upper low. This rising warm air is considered unstable, and continues to rise, as it cools it condensed into thunderstorm clouds. Later in winter, the UAE doesn't enjoy this local weather pattern as the arabian gulf cools down.

Dec 7 2008: Infrared satellite image at 3:30AM shows some thunderstorms near the coastlines. In this event, the lower troposphere was mainly stable, drier, and less conducive for clouds formation. Otherwise, there could have been a bigger belt of clouds. The main moisture flow was farther east over the Arabian sea near pakistan.

Dec 6 2008: This is the cold upper low. Colors correspond to how high you need to rise (in meters) to reach the middle troposphere, roughly speaking. Colder air columns usually have lower heights.

Dec 5 2008: A cold upper low moved over SW Asia, and positioned over southern Iran near the Arabian Gulf. Eastward of the dashed trough, upward motion is favoured, where rain clouds can form and develop if the lower troposphere is favourable too.

While every spot of UAE and Oman is hot and dry, the mountainous region often receives brief and heavy afternoon thunder-showers.  The last couple of days witnessed the start of this summer pattern of brief and odd thundershowers over Hajar mountains of Oman and the UAE. On Wendesday and Thursday May 9-10, mountainous showers are expected to be more numerous.

Such showers tend to be spotty, short-lived, heavy, and with gusty and dusty winds. They form due to surface heating of the land, and the sea breeze winds of the arabian and Omani gulf blowing onshore, and rising on the mountains, and condensing into clouds and brief showers. On some summer days, confulent winds on some western interior desert areas also witness some spotty afternoon showers, but this remains largely confined to mountainous areas. It is ironic how the rest of the UAE witnesses nothing except the view of distant clouds.

Eastern and northern areas of Oman are getting ready for a significant weather event from April 17 to April 19. Some showers could reach the UAE.

Oman and the Weather:

Oman always seem to be the last country in the gulf region that is prone to frequent daily extremes in the weather, be it huge changes in temperatures or sandstorms. But when the weather becomes a topic there, it often takes an extreme scenario, whether it is from cyclones or extreme rainfall events. Oman also has in my opinion the best weather service in the arab world, and a decent warning system that aims to save lives.

The weather dynamics:

The last few days there have been daily thunderstorms over various mountainous and eastern parts of Oman, and the next 3 days the weather is going to get more intesne. An unusual sharp and highly curved mid-level low is going to dive deep from SE Iran, and will almost be positioned near northern UAE by Wednesday night (I’m not indicating rain for UAE). With upward motion usually occuring on the east side of those lows, Oman and especially eastern region will be on the right spot for strong and severe thunderstorms. The upper atmosphere is behaving in a wintry style, while the lower atmosphere has started its warming. Aided with a very moist air mass in the lower atmosphere, rising air parcels will quickly find their way to the skies, resulting in those majestic Cb clouds. Highest accumulated rainfall in eastern Oman between April 17 and 20 could easily reach 100mm, with a dangerous geography of dry wadis, people should avoid being on mountainous areas.

Tuesday April 17:

Heavy thunderstorms to form again over eastern, mountainous, and northern areas of Oman.  Elsehwere, a few thunderstorms are possible over KSA.

Wednesday April 18:

The mid-level low starts moving to SE Iran, and a subtropical jet streak over Kuwait and the Arabian gulf providing ample upward motion for storms over Oman, the weather will quickly destabilize and will get loose over Oman. Thunderstorms will be stronger and more widespread rainfall, especially later at night-time. The sea will be very rough as strong thunderstorms will also spread to northern Arabian Sea.

Thuraday April 19:

Conditions to remain unstable especially during early hours of Thursday, and will calm down by end of Thursday. Some showers might linger up to early Friday April 20.

A small window of opportunity for UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar:

With a highly volatile atmosphere and some uncertainty surrounding the angle and position of the low while its making its way to SE Iran, there is a small possibility of some thundershowers over some parts of the UAE (especially eastern areas), Bahrain, and Qatar on Wednesday, before the system quickly concentrating on Oman. This possibility has to be followed to eliminate surprises.

April 17th: A few showers over western and southern UAE, before moving and intensifying over Oman.

April 16th: More afternoon thunderstorms to develop over eastern Oman especially mountainous areas. Some storms might develop over Hajar mountains as well. Moreover, strong storms are expected to develop again in central KSA. Meanwhile, a few showers could reach southern parts of the UAE.

April 15th: showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to form over different parts of the UAE , with the highest accumulation of rain likely over mountainous and interior areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also affect eastern coast of the UAE and move to much of northern section of Oman.  A few thunderstorms might be strong and bring high winds that could kick up dust.

April 14th: A few thundershowers are possible during early hours of Saturday April 14 mainly over western and coastal areas as rain clouds move from mid to east section of the Arabian Gulf (read about the storms over KSA and mid-gulf). During the afternoon, mountainous, eastern, and interior areas will be at risk of some showers.

www.sat24.com/sa for following latest satellite maps

http://www.ncms.ae/radars/main.asp for latest rain radar maps.

Thunderstorms are being supported by an upper low passing over the region, with surface moist convergence still in place. Some storms could bring hail and high winds over KSA, Bahrain, and Qatar. High winds could cause dusty conditions and rough sea. A few isolated showers possible over Yemen mountains.

Thunder clouds are seen over KSA and the Arabian Gulf on April 13, 2012.

April 12, 2012:

Thunderstorms, sometimes strong, to move to central and eastern KSA, bringing chances of showers to Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Some storms could bring high winds, dust, and hail. During the day, some mountainous thundershowers are possible over Hajar mountains especially in Oman. Dusty conditions possible in all gulf countries.

April 10-11, 2012:

Showers and thunderstorms will form again on April 10 over various parts of KSA, before becoming strong on April 11 especially over mid and NW areas. Risk of hail and high winds will increase on Wednesday as an upper-air trough digs southward. Meanwhile, there is a chance of showers for Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, northern Oman and the UAE.

Rain over Tabuk on April 10, 2012.

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April 9, 2012:

Showers and thunderstorms over Yemen and SW and central KSA. Some storms might be strong with hail. A few clouds over UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman with a very small chance of light showers.

April 7-8, 2012:

Scaterred thunderstorms will again form over KSA, mainly over the central and southwest areas. Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait will have a stable weather with some clouds. Meanwhile, a small chance exists for parts of UAE and northern Oman for some isolated showers.

Image of rain near Taif, KSA (April 2012)

Image of hail (not snow) near Taif, KSA (April 2012)

April 5-6, 2012:

Showers and thunderstorms continue impacting SW KSA on Thursday, before spreading to central and northern regions on Friday. Thundershowers are expected to impact Kuwait by Friday, while the weather becomes stable over Bahrain and Qatar.

April 3-4, 2012:

Showers will continue to affect parts of central and southwest KSA, Qatar, and Bahrain. A chance exists again for western UAE, otherwise clouds will show up again. Meanwhile, a few thundershowers are expected to impact upper gulf and possibly Kuwait.

April 1-2, 2012:

Showers and thunderstorms have been impacting KSA, Bahrain, Qatar, and western islands of the UAE. Cloudy weather was observed in the rest of the UAE.

Lightning in Bahrain's sky on April 1st.

Rainfall estimate image from NASA TRMM program. It shows heavy spots of rain over KSA. And the flow of moisture can easily be traced to Africa.

While mostly scattered, thunderstorms were more widespread and numerous in Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Monday Mar 25th & 26th, and eventually affected the rest of gulf countries including Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, musandam areas of Oman, and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia continues to be the favored spot, followed by Bahrain and Qater. As for the UAE, there is another window of opportunity coming during the first few days of April.

Below images shows estimated rainfall (from NASA TRIMM) amount for 72 hours ending at 12 GMT on mar 27th. It clearly shows that KSA got heavy amounts of rain, thanks to intense thunderstorms mainly on Mar 25th. ArabiaWeather.com has a nice collection of lightning, hail, and rain photos of the event.

Estimated rainfall (from NASA TRIMM) amount for 72 hours ending at 12 GMT on mar 27th.

March 28, 2012:

Risk of showers, although lower than previous days, will exist over upper portion of the Arabian Gulf, eastern and parts of central KSA. This also includes Bahrain and Kuwait. The weather in the UAE will start getting really hotter.

March 29, 2012:

Hot dusty weather over the UAE, Oman, and Qatar. Later during the day isolated showers will form over parts of central and eastern KSA, Bahrain, upper Gulf, and may extend to Kuwait and Qatar.

March 30-31, 2012:

Hot dusty weather over the UAE, Oman. Showers and thunderstorms will form along a surface front, and impact parts of central and eastern KSA, Bahrain, Qatar, and may extend to western and coastal UAE by early Saturday with gusty winds.