March 15 – 18:

A third round is expected over Southwestern Saudi Arabia, especially over red sea coast and mountainous areas including Jeddah and Mecca. Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to erupt during the afternoon hours of Tuesday Mar 15th and continue to Thursday. Thunderstorms could also hit western Yemen and much of southern Red Sea.

A 500mb shortwave trough left behind the main 500mb low from the prior round of thunderstorms will result in lifting of air parcels. Aided with high Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), thunderstorms are likely to occur. However, convection inhibition is quite large on Tuesday, which could make thunderstorms more scattered and delayed until the afternoon, but it is expected to reduce further by Wednesday, setting the stage for stronger thunderstorms. 0-6 KM wind shear is expected to increase on Wendesday with greater mid-level lapse rates. Basically the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and long-lived thunderstorms is higher on Wendesday. But the risk of localized heavy rainfall from thunderstorms exists from Tuesday to Thursday.

March 7 – 14:

Several thunderstorms have been pounding parts of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Exceesive rainfall from long-lived thunderstorms over parts Saudi Arabia dumped as much as 75mm in few hours. 3 people have been killed in Al Ta’if.

The below image show actual rainfall observed during the 72 hours ending on Mar 12 at 3 GMT. Of course, rain has also fallen prior to 72 hours and is expected to continue for a couple of days after Mar 12.

Forecast: This round is expected to be stronger and will affect northern Arabia as an upper low deepens over the Mediterranean, with rain and showers also extending to Iraq and Iran. It will start during the evening hours of Monday March 7th as scattered thunderstorms over western Yemen, western Saudi Arabia, before spreading to parts of northern Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in response to a long-wave trough and will continue until Tuesday. Some thunderstorms could be strong over northern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq as increasing CAPE, relatively low CIN, high mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/Km, and high 0-6 KM vertical wind shear. The system is expected to re-generate starting Wednesday (and progressing until Monday March 14) as the 500mb low over the Mediterranean deepens and moves further south with a short-wave trough developing later. Aided by tropical moisture flowing northward, a belt of clouds, rain, and some organized thunderstorms could form along frontal boundary with precipitation becoming potentially heavy accross eastern Saudi Arabia, northern Arabian Gulf, Iran (with mountain snow), Iraq, and the Mediterranean. Some rain showers may reach Bahrain and Qatar. Becoming warmer over the UAE , Oman, eastern Iran, and Pakistan.

March 4 – 6:

The first round is relatively weaker with scatterred showers and should start during the evening hours of Friday March 4th over parts of western Saudi Arabia. The scatterred showers are expected to progress eastward during the following 48 hours towards central Saudi Arabia, the Empty Quarter , southern and western UAE (!!) and parts of interior and eastern Oman. Some clouds could cover other parts of the UAE with a chance of a shower. This round of showers continue the same pattern of below-average rainfall in much of the UAE, except for the western region where rainfall has been average to above average. Moreover, the pattern of unusual path of rain continues in the region as this round delivers rain in the Empty Quarter!

Saturday March 5th: Rain Showers in southern UAE.

Lightning strikes in KSA on Feb 8, 2011.

Feb 8-9: A few showers

UAE weather details: partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions are expected on Feb 9th with scatterred light showers affecting northern/northeastern UAE.

A few scatterred rain showers (sometimes thundery), with periods of clouds and sunshine affected the Arabian Gulf countries of Kuwait, Bahrain, , parts of Saudi Arabia (central, western Red Sea coast, and Arabian Gulf coast) on Feb 8th. The chance of widespread rain is not high as rain showers are likely to be isolated to scatterred. However, that doesn’t rule out the possibilty for some thunderstorms. Elsewhere, showers could extend to parts of the Meditterranean, northern Egypt, and Iraq while Iran is expected to receive more rainfall especially SE Iran.

Feb 10-13: Numerous Showers for others:

An upper low pressure moving southward over Iran will result in rainfall/mountain snow over much of Iran and Afghanistan . However, southeast Iran near the Arabian Sea is expected to recive moderate rainfall with even some thundershowers. As a cold front develops and moves to upper portion of the Arabian Sea, the area of rain and thundershowers is going to move eastward, delivering rain showers to much of western half of Pakistan, including the usually dry southwestern Pakistan. The last time this area received proper rainfall is during cyclone Phet. There will also be snowfall and rain over northern Pakistan. Later by Sunday, the front moves eastward/northeastward, bringing chance of showers to even south central Pakistan which is very dry during winter.

Rain will also continue in parts of the Mediterranean. Some rain showers and thundershowers could extend to Gulf of Oman and Omani coasts at some times. A few showers (with little thunder) affected NE areas of UAE and along the east coast as Ras Al Khaymah recorded 2.2mm while Jees mountain recorded 4.2mm. Showers also affected Shawkah and Fujairah.

 Cooler weather with below average day-time temperatures for the UAE in addition to westerly winds starting Feb 12 and lasting for a few days.

Rainfall total between Jan 15 and 22, 2011. A wide area of rain recorded over the Arabian Gulf countries.

A heavy rain outbreak took place between Jan 17 and 19 over the mid Arabian Gulf, Qatar, Bahrain, and central Saudi Arabia. Heaviest rainfall recorded of 158mm in Al Dammam, that is almost 2 years rainfall in one day. Riyadh recorded 61mm while Bahrain and Qatar recorded around 26mm. Several areas recorded similar amounts. The heavy rain resulted in traffic problems and school closure in Riyadh. More than 40 mm of rain in western UAE between Jan 20-22 while highest rainfall in Oman was 78mm in Izki.

Meanwhile, Tabuk mountains observed thick snow during the last few days as temperatures plunged and a low pressure system bringed snow clouds.

Heaviest rainfall recorded of more than 150mm in Saudi Arabia.

The Big Picture:

The area shaded blue has a chance of experiencing such conditions. Not all areas will be affected at the same time as low pressure systems travelling eastward result in rainfall over certain places.

• This is NOT a severe weather event , but there could be heavy rainfall over some areas
• Not all areas will be affected at the same time as low pressure systems travelling eastward result in rainfall over certain places
• Different countries will experiece this weather at different times between Jan 13 and 21
• Some countries might experiece thunderstorms bringing heavy rainfall and high winds
• Countries possibly to be affected include Egypt, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and parts of Oman and Pakistan

 Daily Weather Details:

• January 13: An upper air low pressure system has started digging southward over Egypt and North Africa, with upper low pressure lines extending to western Saudi Arabia. Makkah received moderate wetting of rainfall of 20mm (photo) and Jeddah received 6 mm.
• January 14-15: Rainy clouds (with thunder) over Northern Egypt and the Mediterranean countries as a surface low pressure system advances. Higher rainfall over coastal areas. Another belt of clouds with rain, showers, and thunderstorms to form over western Saudi Arabia from Red Sea coasts of Jeddah (where 26 mm of rain was record -photo of thunderstorm in Jeddah) and Makkah all the way to the northern and central Arabian Gulf coast passing by Central Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and extending to a large part of western Iran and much of Iraq (see satellite image of clouds Jan 15). Rainfall in Iran could be heavy with snow over several areas. Some rain/snow showers over Northern Pakistan. Periods of clouds in the Arabian Gulf countries of Qatar and Bahrain. Dusty southerly winds in the UAE.
• January 16: A belt of clouds from southwestern Saudi Arabia to centeal Arabian Gulf. Some showers in Central Saudi Arabia possibly extending to Bahrain and Qatar. Moderate to heavy rain/snow continuing over Iran, especially southern region. Showers over coastal Mediterranean. Becoming warm in the UAE with souterly winds as a low pressure centers over eastern Iran, drawing southerly warm winds over the UAE, before northwesterly winds arrive later in the day. A zone of temperature difference between eastern and central Arabian Peninsula formed. The next plunging upper low pressure will feed on this temperature difference and result in widespread showers and rain in the Arabian Gulf.
• January 17: the belt of clouds from moved southeastward to cover the UAE, Bahrain, central and southern Saudi Arabia, and the Arabian Gulf to southeastern Iran with some showers/drizzle in some places during the day. Later at night the chance of some showers continue in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, the Arabian Gulf and southern and central Saudi Arabia. An area of moderate rain (rain radar image) has formed over the Arabian Gulf and southern Qatar. The clouds/rain increase in response to an upper-air trough from a plunging upper low pressure over Egypt which could deliver rain and thunderstorms to parts of Egypt, the Meditterranean, and nortwest Saudi Arabia.
• Janurary 18: The low pressure over Egypt starts moving eastward with continued showers over Egypt, the Meditterranean, and northwest Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, a large area of clouds with areas of rain showers developed over the Arabian Gulf to Central Saudi Arabia including Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. The UAE received some showers over northern areas while the rest of the country remained cloudy. However, persistent light to moderate and sometimes heavy rain affected Qatar, Bahrain, central Saudi Arabia including Riyadh and Al Dammam where an astonishing 142 mm of rain has been recored. Riyadh closed schools with several traffic problems. Temperatures struggled to exceed 10c in Riyadh with cold rain falling while Bahrain and Qatar enjoyed cool temperatures between 13 and 17 with persisten rain. Later, a cold front developed with more clouds extending to southern Red Sea into Equatorial Africa all the way to southeastern Iran, passing by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. This cloud cover could contain periods of rain (sometimes heavy), showers, and thunderstorms, impacting those countries during the late hours of Tuesday. In the UAE, the chance of rain continues in northern areas, but overall the country remains largely dry.
• January 19: the front continue delivering cloudy periods over the Arabian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and southeastern Iran, with rain ending there. A few light showers and drizzle in UAE as clouds move eastward. Some clouds with light rain in western Pakistan.
• January 20: Periods of subshine, clouds and chance of showers in the UAE, southern Saudi Arabia, extreme northwestern Oman, southeastern Iran, and western Pakistan. A few thunderstorms in central Saudi Arabia. Later at night, thundershowers affected Abu Dhabi, Al Ain, and western UAE
• January 21: Several Showers and rain clouds moving to the UAE. Almost all areas received rain. Highest rainfall of more than 30mm in Al Ghuwaiefat (western area). Showers also affected Saudi Arabia and parts of Oman
• January 22-24: Showers in Oman and small chance for southern UAE.


Rain clouds detected in the UAE at 7:40 AM Jan 21



Huge cloud cover that brought persistent rainfall over Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. Jan 18

Behind the Scenes and the Recently Missing Piece of the Puzzle (for those who are interested!):

• A couple of low pressure systems trailing eastward from Egypt to Iran, passing by the Meditterranean, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq
• Cooler air flowing from the low pressure systems
• Missing piece of the puzzle: Abundant moist and warm air flowing from Equatorial Africa to the heart of the Arabian Peninsula. This has been missing since the November, which helped result in drier conditions accross much of Arabia.
• Cooler air colliding with a moist air mass over the Arabian Peninsula resulting in rain clouds

Forecast for the UAE; Chance of Showers Jan 10-11

• Highest rainfall recorded around 5 mm in Alsuweihan on Jan 11th
• Warmer weather between Jan 7th and 9th as the low pressure over Iran draws more southerly warm winds. Temperatures could hit 30c in interior areas.
• As it starts crossing Iran, a weak cold front will bring clouds with a chance of showers in the UAE, Arabian Gulf and parts of Oman on Jan 10th and 11th.
• Cool and and windy (up to 50 Km/hr) on Jan 12, with cooler days and nights affecting the UAE until Jan 14th. Rough sea conditions in the UAE from Monday to Thursday.

Cooler Weather to Affect central and northern Arabia

The mild days in central and northern Arabian Peninsula are finally going to give way to the late arriving cool weather. The image above showes expected minimum temperatures during the early hours of Thursday Jan 13th.

A low pressure system delivering rain to the Mediterranean countries on Jan 7th and 8th is expected to intensify and deliver moderate to heavy rain and snow to Iran by Jan 9th and 10th, after impacting parts of Iraq and possibly Kuwait with some showers.

Behind the low pressure, cold to cool northwesterly winds will impact the region, delivering  cooler days to northern and central Arabian Peninsula starting Monday. Much of northern Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will experience day-time temperatures in the teens plunging to around 5c at night. Several areas in NW Saudi Arabia are expected to record temperatures as low as 0c between Jan 10 and 15. Bahrain and Qatar are also expected to record mildly cool temperatures. The impact of the cool air is much less in Eastern Arabia including the UAE and Oman.

A strong winter storm hit Eastern Mediterranean countries between December 10th and 14th, 2010. Wet weather also affected Iraq, Iran, as well as the Arabian Peninsula.

Brief summary of factors behind this wet outlook: An area of deep low pressure in the middle and lower atmosphere formed over the eastern Mediterranean region along with cold air coming from northern Europe. Several areas in southeastern Europe like Turkey received their first snow from this storm. The storm also benefited from supply of moist air from the African equator. The storm packed strong gusty winds with it along with extremely rough sea conditions over the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Below is the weather conditions for the region from December 9th to December 14th:

Eastern Mediterranean (Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt):

• The storm brought cold air with temperatures plunging by Sunday Dec 12th.
• The storm’s strongest impact was felt along coastal Lebanon, coastal Palestine, and coastal Syria. These are the areas where rainfall accumulation could have exceeded 100mm and could have reached the 200mm mark between December 10th and 14th. Most of the areas easily recorded 100mm of rain. The first round of rain arrived by the early hours of Friday December 10th. This image shows forecast of rainfall accumulation.
• Jordan (especially northern areas) and interior areas of Syria are also expected to receive rain, but not as heavy as coastal areas. Those areas, however, are expected to bear the brunt of the cold air as freezing night temperatures are possible. This resulted in wintry mix (rain, freezing rain, or sleet) with heavy snowfall during night time especially in Damascus. Moreover, mountain ranges of Palestinem Jorda, Syria, and Lebanon received substantial snowfall.
• The storm produced damaging strong gusty winds between Dec 11th and 12th. Again coastal especially lebanon areas were hit hard as winds exceeded 800 Km/hr. Sea conditions were extremely rough and stormy.
• Needless to say, coastal areas were in for large amounts of rain that resulted in flooding over mountainous areas and wadis.
• Northern coastal Egypt received heavy rain showers with strong gusty winds. Inland, duststorms and high winds prevailed which also extended to parts of Jordan.

Iraq and Iran:

• A few scaterred thunderstorms and rain showers affected Iraq and Iran as well. Highest accumulation of rain are over eastern half of Iraq and western half of Iran. Snow is also possible on moutainous areas of Iran. By December 13th, duststorms affected Iraq.

Arabian Peninsula:

• Thunderstorms erupted over Saudi Arabia areas along the Red Sea on December 9th and 10th . Between December 10th and 11th Scaterred showers and a few thunderstorms could spread (with less intensity and coverage) to central parts of Saudi Arabia.
• Gusty winds with duststorms developed over the Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Arabian Gulf, Bahrain, Qatar, and will reach the UAE on December 14th. Sea conditions are expected to be very rough.

1- Did it ever snow in the UAE?
2- Did a tornado/waterspout ever affect the UAE?
3- What about cyclones?
4- Does the temperature reach the freezing point in the UAE?
5- Does it rain in the UAE during the summer? 

First the UAE is situated on 24N 54E. Below is a map of the UAE. Click here for google map. 

Hajar mountains cover NE UAE

The UAE has a very dry climate. Summers are extremely hot and humid with high temperatures in the 40s. However, winters bring pleasant temperatures with coastal highs in mid 20s and lows in teens. Winter precipitation is highly irregular, meaning that a certain winter can bring either no/ little rainfall or much rainfall compared to average. 

So let’s answer the weird questions mentioned above: 

1- Did it ever snow in the UAE?
Yes it did. But it happened on UAE’s highest mountain (Jees mountain, around 1700m above sea level). Temperature there often drops to or near freezing level during winter. With the passage of cold front, snow can fall there witht the right conditions. There are 2 snow events that are well-documented (in Jan 2009 & Dec 2004). And there are probably other non-documented cases. Click here for more. 

Snow covers Jees mountain Jan 2009

2- Did a tornado/waterspout ever affect the UAE?
Yes. strong thunderstorms can develop tornadoes. On Jan 1st, 2003, a waterspout formed near the shores of Sharjah and Ajman. But it dissipated before causing any damage. Click here for a video of a tornado on Dec 29 2006 near Ras Al Khaymah. 

Jan2003 waterspout

Summer twin vortices Oct 25th 2007 in Madam area, UAE

3- What about cyclones?
While Arabian Sea cyclones mainly affect India, Pakistan, and Oman, Cyclone Gonu almost managed to hit the UAE in 2007. But it did send tons of waves to UAE East coast. Read more here. 

Cyclone Gonu effect on UAE East

Cyclone Gonu in Gulf of Oman (Jun 2007)

4- Did temperatures reach 0c in the UAE?
UAE Jees Mountain can get as cold as -5c during winter. Elsewhere, the open desert of the UAE can get close to 0c especially if you are away from the sea during cold, calm wintry nights and after the passage of cold fronts. 

5- Does it rain in the UAE during the summer?
The UAE Hajar mountains help produce local thunderstorms in the afternoon during summer and early autumn even though other parts of the country swelter under high temperatures and humidity levels.

Snow covers Jees mountain Jan 2009 (Gulfnews)

Well, the unusually low freezing level resulted in snow falling on the top of Jees mountain (1,737m) in Ras Al Khaymah in northernmost UAE. This is not the 1st time it snows there, but this is the heaviest snow cover ever recorded. Snow accumulations of 20cm have been reported as temperature dipped to -3c on Friday night and struggled to go above 1c on Saturday. Read more about the snow here (AFP) and for more photos (Gulfnews) click here. For a video of the snow (Gulfnews) click here.

The cold front that has swept across the UAE on Friday evening and early Saturday has brought widespread moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms (with hail) affecting many areas.