While the word summer, for many people living in the Arabian Peninsula, immediately means hot temperatures of above 40c with dry sunny days, it may not mean the same for some. In fact, there are places in Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen where summer might mean something that is not really summer-like. In reality, parts of [...]]]>

While the word summer, for many people living in the Arabian Peninsula, immediately means hot temperatures of above 40c with dry sunny days, it may not mean the same for some. In fact, there are places in Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen where summer might mean something that is not really summer-like. In reality, parts of SE Oman, S and SW Saudi Arabia, and much of Yemen enjoy summers that are wet and pleasant. However, the summer of 2010 have so far brought more than their typical share of summer rain.

Starting with Oman, the city of Salalah, pictured above, (Thofar region, SE Oman) is by all means a summer wonder in Arabia. Salalah magically transforms into a paradise during summer as moist tropical air from the Arabian Sea engulfs the city with misty air, giving life to plants, wild life, and even desert itself. The region changes from a sandy brownish outlook to a green lush one due to daily drizzle/rain, giving rise to spectacular waterfalls and lakes with air temperatures in mid 20s.

While green Salalah is a regular event, other areas in Oman have become targets of irregular weather systems, mainly tropical cyclones. During late May, June, late September, October, and early November, tropical cyclones form in the Arabian Sea and sometimes affect Oman/Yemen. And in June 2010, Oman braced itself for a hit from Cyclone Phet, leaving the country with floods and more than 20 fatalities. It is a harsh reality for Oman, given that the two strongest tropical cyclones of the Arabian Sea (since records began), Gonu and Phet, hit them during the last 4 years. And those tropical cyclones have hit northern arid areas of Oman. Is it a new trend? Maybe. It is important to keep in mind that Oman occasinally gets hit by tropical cyclones, but usually they are weaker and more to the south.

Phet approaching Oman

Yemen, which enjoys a thundery wet summer due to tropical moisture with pleasant temperatures, also had to contend with a rare hit from tropical storm Bandu in late May 2010, which resulted in heavy rains and property damage. It proved to be an early wet start to their normally wet monsoon, which peaks in July and August, resulting in daily thunderstorms over much of hilly/mountaineous Yemen. However, monsoon rain in Yemen in 2010 have also been so far above average. There have been more than 50 fatalities in Yemen due to floods.

Southern Saudi Arabia also enjoys a wet thundery summer, similar to Yemen, due to mountaineous areas and tropical moisture during the summer months. These thunderstorms have been stronger and wetter than normal, which resulted in more than 15 fatalities so far this year.

While those areas enjoy a contrasting summer than other countries in the Arabian Peninsula, the rest contine to swelter under extreme heat and harsh weather conditions. The below image shows rainfall in Arabia during the last 30 days, in mm per day. It is very clear how wet parts of Oman, S Saudi Arabia, and Yemen were.

Oman and parts of the UAE under cloud cover

Tropical clouds from the Arabian Sea Monsoon, extending from India, have sent waves of tropical clouds and moisture over Oman and parts of UAE, mainly southeast areas. With abundant heat and moisture, thunderstorms have erupted over Hajar mountains on [...]]]>

Al Ain during the storm (Image Source: Storm.ae)

Oman and parts of the UAE under cloud cover

Tropical clouds from the Arabian Sea Monsoon, extending from India, have sent waves of tropical clouds and moisture over Oman and parts of UAE, mainly southeast areas. With abundant heat and moisture, thunderstorms have erupted over Hajar mountains on July 8th, east and southeast of Al-Ain, then moved westward and hit Al-Ain with high winds, hail, and heavy rain. Winds gusted up to 114 Km/hr! Temperature decreased to 29c or less during the storm

The rainy clouds are covering a widespread area of southeast UAE near Oman border. The situation is expected to remain more or less the same until Saturday July 10th.

Rain Radar showing areas of rain over SE UAE

Clouds and moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, extending from India, could cover parts of Oman, especially coastal areas. These clouds could deliver a few showers and thunderstorms, or at least cloudy tropical conditions for a couple of days. Such an occurence is normal for this time of the year as Monsoon reaches its peak intensity [...]]]>

Clouds and moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, extending from India, could cover parts of Oman, especially coastal areas. These clouds could deliver a few showers and thunderstorms, or at least cloudy tropical conditions for a couple of days. Such an occurence is normal for this time of the year as Monsoon reaches its peak intensity over the Arabian Sea and India, resulting in such clouds extending to Eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

Clouds could extend to parts of the UAE especially the Eastern coast where periods of cloudy conditions could prevail, with a very small chance of odd drizzles or showers. However, Hajar mountains (over Oman and the UAE) will also see increased chance of thunderstorm activity.

Update: At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet

Update: Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well. Phet also caused high waves [...]]]>

Floooded Oman

Update:
At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet

Update:
Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well.
Phet also caused high waves along UAE east coast.

Update:
Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman eastern coast. Now it is over the interior regions of eastern Oman. Highest rainfall so far more than 300mm, with Sur getting around 250mm of rain.

Phet inside Oman

Eye of Cyclone Phet is nearing lanfall at Oman Coast

The eye of Phet makes landfall on Oman eastern coast:

Where? Somwhere between north of Masirah island and Sur city. But clouds extending 200 to 300 Km outside the eye will gurantee storm conditions in all of Oman eastern coast regardless whether the eye hits or not. The eye right now is very close to Masirah island and it must be incredibly stormy there now.
When: the eye of Phet will make landfall during the first 12 hours of Friday. But stormy conditions have already started gaining momentum in most of Oman eastern coasts as storm clouds extend at least 200 Km outside of the eye.

Red coastline is prone to a direct hit from the eye of cyclone Phet

How much rain for Oman?
anywhere from 100 mm to 500mm or much more accumulation of rain over Phet path.

Winds?
The eye will pack winds between 150 Km/hr and possibly closer to 200 Km/hr. Many areas of eastern Oman will experience winds around 100 Km/hr.

Tornadoes as well?
Yes why not, cyclones do produce tornadoes sometimes

Storm surge?
High storm surge and huge waves to batter Oman eastern coast. Large waves (but not as severe) could also reach UAE east coast.

What does the eye pack?
The area surrounding the eye (eye wall) contains the higest winds and the strongest thunderstorms (probably right now on earth) with flooding rain and huge storm surge. Wherever the eye hits, it is a total mess.

Jun 3rd 10AM GMT update: Phet clouds have started bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to a large part of coastal Oman especially Masirah island. Dangerous weather conditions to affect the area there.

Most models predict Phet to move NE soon after entering Oman, but there are signs from US models it will continue moving NW, multiplying the [...]]]>

Jun 3rd 10AM GMT update:
Phet clouds have started bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to a large part of coastal Oman especially Masirah island. Dangerous weather conditions to affect the area there.

Most models predict Phet to move NE soon after entering Oman, but there are signs from US models it will continue moving NW, multiplying the amount of rain falling over Oman.

Jun 3 9AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on the eastern coast of Oman (as a category2-4) Friday AM around the area of Maisrah island, then its expected to move over the coast towards Sur. But heavy rain and high winds will extend 200 or 300 Km around the eye.

Jun 3 4AM GMT update
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on Oman eastern coast tonight (thu Jun 3) as a weaker category 2 or 3 cyclone but still very dangerous.

June2, 3PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to hit Oman as a full fledged category 3-5 cyclones with destruction possible around the path of the eye.

Phet updated track

 

 

Jun 2, 1PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to graze Oman coast as a category 5 cyclone. Even if the eye (which packs winds more than 220 Km/hr) stays offshore, the clouds extending out of the cyclone will hit easternmost Oman. There is a small possibility that the eye makes landfall over easternmost Oman, bringing deadly weather conditions!

 

June 2, 8AM GMT:
Cyclone Phet (category 3 now) and will reach category 4 on Thu Jun 3, 2010.

Phet will either
1- move NW very close to Oman easternmost coast, bring heavy rain, high winds, and high waves to easternmost Oman, or
2- make landfall over easternmost coast of Oman with destructive winds, flooding rain, and significant storm surge to a large part of eastern Oman.

June 2, 6AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet will soon be a category 4 cyclone. Potential impact on Oman.

Cyclone Phet is expected to take one of 2 possible scenarios:
1- stay offshore Oman coast and curve NE towarda pakistan
2- continue moving NW and make landfall on Oman east coast, before curving NE towarda Pakistan

Nevertheless, Oman east coast is under the threat of heavy rain, gusty winds, and high waves even if the cyclone stays offshore.

June 1st evening update:
Tropical storm Phet in the Arabian Sea is now upgraded to a cyclone . It packs winds of 120 km/hr or more around its centre. Pakistan and india are likely targets. But I can’t rule out a few side effects on Oman.

June 1 st update:
Cyclone Phet will continue moving N/NW during the next 24 hours, before curving NE towards Pakistan/Indian coasts. It is expected to strengthen to potentially category 2 cyclone. Wherever the eye makes landfall, severe damage due to destructive winds and flooding rain is possible. Meanwhile, easternmost of Oman could get affected by some rainy clouds, fresh winds, and high waves.

Cyclone Phet and its eye

June 2, 8AM GMT:

North Indian Ocean Cyclones Tracks

It is very clear that among the Gulf countries, Oman and Yemen are at higher risk of [...]]]> The Arabian Sea usually produces a few tropical storms or even cyclones (mainly in May/June/Oct/Nov). The image below shows tropical storms tracks from 1891 to 2007 produced by the Indian Meteorological Dept (IMD).

North Indian Ocean Cyclones Tracks

It is very clear that among the Gulf countries, Oman and Yemen are at higher risk of getting hit by tropical storms or cyclones every year. While the Arabian Sea produces storms annually, Oman and Yemen are not affected every year. Even when they are affected, usually the storms are not severe (tropical storms or depression with winds below 119 Km/hr) and don’t reach cyclone status (winds above 119 Km/hr). However, the amount of rain that falls can be fatal by itself. Moreover, there are exceptions such as Cyclone Gonu which entered Gulf of Oman as a category 1 cyclone, but not before reaching a category 5 status while moving over the Arabian Sea before reaching Oman.

And after Cyclone Gonu shattered records by being the strongest storm in the Arabian Sea and by taking an unusual track into the Gulf of Oman, we need to keep an eye on the Arabian Sea for future storms development. During the next 45 days, chances are that another tropical storm or cyclone could form over the Arabian Sea. Although most of them hit India, we need to remeber the potential of those storms to move to the west or northwest approaching Oman or Yemen.

Update: May 25, 2010

Tropical Storm Bandu has subsided and faded away after entering the Gulf of Aden. Most of the rain fell mainly offshore. Some heavy rain fell over Yemen. However, Yemen escaped the worst of the storm even though damages to some villages were reported to be severe.

Update: May 25, 2010

Tropical Storm Bandu has subsided and faded away after entering the Gulf of Aden. Most of the rain fell mainly offshore. Some heavy rain fell over Yemen. However, Yemen escaped the worst of the storm even though damages to some villages were reported to be severe.

Nevertheless, Tropical Storm Bandu did take  somehow an unusual track by entering tge Gulf of Aden as very few storms did so. Are Arabian Sea Tropical storms/cyclones becoming more invasive after entering Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Oman in 2007!?

_____________

A tropical cyclone (named Bandu) has been churning in the southern Arabian Sea for the last few days off the coast of Somalia. The Arabian Sea forms part of the North Indian ocean, which has seen two cyclones form in the last five days. The first being cyclone Laila in the Bay of Bengal which has already affected the eastern coast of India, and the second storm is in the Arabian Sea.

 

Satellite View of Tropical Storm Bandu (May 21, 2010)

Currently the cyclone packs winds of 105 km/hr around the eye of the storm with gusts of 130 Km/hr. The cyclone is very close to becoming a category 1 cyclone of winds of 119 Km/hr. The storm is currently unleashing heavy rain in Socatra. The system is expected to move into the Gulf of Aden with a potential landing on the eastern coast of Yemen. However, it is expected to weaken by the time it reaches Yemen. But, it might deliver heavy rain, floods, and gusty winds.

Tropical Storm Bandu Forecasted Track

Between 100 and 200 mm have fallen over [...]]]> Numerous thunderstorms have affected the Arabian peninsulua with severe storms in SW Saudi Arabia as well as strong storms in Bahrain. There are reports of casualities in Saudi Arabia

Between 100 and 200 mm have fallen over Saudi Arabia

The UAE is getting ready for another round of thunderstorms!

A strong cold front is going to arrive to the UAE on Monday (PM) and will result in widespread periods of rain with periods of heavy rain and heavy thunderstorms. Again, every thunderstorm can be capable of producing hailstones, torrential rain, and strong winds. Northern UAE is at [...]]]>

The UAE is getting ready for another round of thunderstorms!

A strong cold front is going to arrive to the UAE on Monday (PM) and will result in widespread periods of rain with periods of heavy rain and heavy thunderstorms. Again, every thunderstorm can be capable of producing hailstones, torrential rain, and strong winds. Northern UAE is at risk, but evey spot in the UAE can get severe weather. Parts of Oman, the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and southern Iran are also at risk of heavy rain.=”text-align: center;”>

Rainfall forecast. Dark blue indicates heavy rain.

 

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries which brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt. There are also rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It [...]]]>

Surface lows and fronts on Fri Feb 26 2010

An upper low is currently over the middeteranian countries which brought rain showers and thunderstorms there including some heavy showers to Egypt. There are also rain and thunderstorms over parts of Iraq, Iran, NW Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Currently hot weather with southerly winds are affecting the UAE & Oman. It feels like summer here in the UAE with temperatures hovering in mid 30s. Right now the cold front (blue) is unable to cause any rain/thunderstorms formation due to interaction with dry air. On Saturday/Sunday it will result in thunderstorms and rain showers over many parts of the UAE (especially north) and northern Oman (Slight chance of rain in Bahrain and Qatar). Some thunderstorms could be strong. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere between 1 to 25 mm.  

Spring starts on March 1st, 2010 with a collision between summer and winter with heavy rain and thunderstorms in the UAE.