June 3rd, 2010
Floooded Oman
Update:
At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet
Update:
Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well.
Phet also caused high waves along UAE east coast.
Update:
Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman eastern coast. Now it is over the interior regions of eastern Oman. Highest rainfall so far more than 300mm, with Sur getting around 250mm of rain.
Phet inside Oman
Eye of Cyclone Phet is nearing lanfall at Oman Coast
The eye of Phet makes landfall on Oman eastern coast:
Where? Somwhere between north of Masirah island and Sur city. But clouds extending 200 to 300 Km outside the eye will gurantee storm conditions in all of Oman eastern coast regardless whether the eye hits or not. The eye right now is very close to Masirah island and it must be incredibly stormy there now.
When: the eye of Phet will make landfall during the first 12 hours of Friday. But stormy conditions have already started gaining momentum in most of Oman eastern coasts as storm clouds extend at least 200 Km outside of the eye.
Red coastline is prone to a direct hit from the eye of cyclone Phet
How much rain for Oman?
anywhere from 100 mm to 500mm or much more accumulation of rain over Phet path.
Winds?
The eye will pack winds between 150 Km/hr and possibly closer to 200 Km/hr. Many areas of eastern Oman will experience winds around 100 Km/hr.
Tornadoes as well?
Yes why not, cyclones do produce tornadoes sometimes 
Storm surge?
High storm surge and huge waves to batter Oman eastern coast. Large waves (but not as severe) could also reach UAE east coast.
What does the eye pack?
The area surrounding the eye (eye wall) contains the higest winds and the strongest thunderstorms (probably right now on earth) with flooding rain and huge storm surge. Wherever the eye hits, it is a total mess.
May 25th, 2010
The Arabian Sea usually produces a few tropical storms or even cyclones (mainly in May/June/Oct/Nov). The image below shows tropical storms tracks from 1891 to 2007 produced by the Indian Meteorological Dept (IMD).
North Indian Ocean Cyclones Tracks
It is very clear that among the Gulf countries, Oman and Yemen are at higher risk of getting hit by tropical storms or cyclones every year. While the Arabian Sea produces storms annually, Oman and Yemen are not affected every year. Even when they are affected, usually the storms are not severe (tropical storms or depression with winds below 119 Km/hr) and don’t reach cyclone status (winds above 119 Km/hr). However, the amount of rain that falls can be fatal by itself. Moreover, there are exceptions such as Cyclone Gonu which entered Gulf of Oman as a category 1 cyclone, but not before reaching a category 5 status while moving over the Arabian Sea before reaching Oman.
And after Cyclone Gonu shattered records by being the strongest storm in the Arabian Sea and by taking an unusual track into the Gulf of Oman, we need to keep an eye on the Arabian Sea for future storms development. During the next 45 days, chances are that another tropical storm or cyclone could form over the Arabian Sea. Although most of them hit India, we need to remeber the potential of those storms to move to the west or northwest approaching Oman or Yemen.
April 30th, 2010
More weird weather on the way!
May, a month that is supposed to be dry, one month away from June, the start of summer, will start with a fresh and strong round of thunderstorms and rain over central and NW Arabian Peninsula.
A deep low (typical of late winter) will pass over Turkey and cooler air into northern Arabia, resulting in explosive thunderstorms over a large part of Saudi Arabia. Western Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are also at risk of these thunderstorms. Rain and thunderstorms will also extend to much of Iraq and western Iran. The middeteranian countries and Egypt might also be getting some showers and a few thunderstorms.
God help Saudi Arabia from these monsterous thunderstorms! The probability of flood is there!
Rainfall during the next 7 days. Purple spots indicate heavy rain
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