Heavy rainfall with thunderstorms inundated Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, with an incredible rainfall of 111mm. This compares nicely with an annual average of around 50mm. Tons of traffic problems with trapped cars and people. The city’s infrastructure and geography might be blamed, but 111mm of rain is quite high.

10 people have been confirmed dead.

Click here for a video of the rain in Jeddah on Jan 26, 2011.

A new round of rain showers and some thunderstorms has begun over parts of SW Asia. Countries affected include the Mediterranean countries, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and possibly Qatar. Once again, a moisture corridor from Africa and an area of upper air low pressure are enhacing rain clouds formation.

• January 24: A few thunderstorms in western Saudi Arabia, mainly Makkah, possibly Jeddah, and surrounding areas near central Red Sea.
• January 25 – 26: Heavy flooding rainfall with thunderstorm affected Jeddah (around 110 mm of rain) with thundershowers in Makkah, central Saudi Arabia, and Arabian Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia, parts of Kuwait, Bahrain, parts of Qatar, and much of Iraq, and Iran. Rain showers with thunder affected coastal Mediterranean as well.
• January 27: Rain showers continue in parts of Iraq, Iran, and the Arabian Gulf. Showers in Bahrain, and central and Arabian Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia.
• January 28: A few thundershowers in parts of Arabian gulf, Bahrain, south Iran, and in Mediterranean countries. Severe thunderstorm in northern UAE with sandstorm in other places. Thunderstorm in Musandam (Oman). The system moves to southern iran and western Pakisatan.

The Middle East is probably the last region that comes into any person’s mind with regard to weather-related fatalities and disasters. Here are notable weather events in the Middle East in 2010, starting and ending with the typically very dry Egypt (!!) :

• At least 10 fatalities in Egypt due to heavy thunderstorms and flooding rain Jan 17th and 18th
• Strong thunderstorms resulting in 4 casualities in the UAE on Feb 28th
• Heavy thunderstorms in Saudi Arabia in April, May, and July which resulted in at least 7 fatalities
• The infamous cyclone Phet (see above image) killing at least 24 people in Oman in June
• Pakistan disasterous floods in August
• Damaging Eastern Miditerranean winter storm in December, after prolonged drought and forest fires
• Red Sea storm killing at least 4 in Saudi Arabia and at least 5 in Egypt in December

I will let you decide whether those weather events were really severe or people in the Middle East are generally not prepared to handle such weather events.

Pakistan usually receives summer rain. The indian monsoon that builds up in summer, stretches up to Pakistan every year during July and August. But 2010 monsoon proved to be totally different!

While the media has focused extensively on the human and health impacts of the flooding, I thought of giving an idea of how much rain really fell in Pakistan. The below 2 images (from NASA TRMM site) shows rainfall for the last 30 days. The first shows total rainfall, and the second shows anomaly (how much more or less than normal).

The above image shows much of Pakistan in blue, green, and yellow shadings. Almost half the country had received at least 150mm of rain, while widespread areas received anywhere from 300 to 450mm during the last 30 days.I suspect there was localized rainfall of more than 450mm in some areas. The image doesn’t show rainfall during June and July. It is very ironic how western Pakistan remained largely dry (white shading).

The above image shows how much rain was above normal for Pakistan. Rainfall was 150 to 300mm more than normal for Pakistan. However, another factor that contributed to the flooding is geography. Much of the rain accumulated in wadis and rivers from mountains in northern Pakistan, travelling south up to the Arabian Sea shores, transferring floods to southern Pakistan.

Of particulat interest is the Indus River in Pakistan. The river has expanded and risen significantly, flooding widespread areas. The below 2 images shows views of the River from space (NASA Earth Observatory site) taken before and after the floods. The images are very astonishing and scary as well. See how the Indus River has multiplied in size.

Indus River Aug 19, 2010

Indus River July 2009

Floooded Oman

Update:
At least 24 people have died in Oman due to Cyclone Phet

Update:
Cyclone Phet is leaving Oman now and moving to Pakistan. It will reach Pakistan late Sat/early Sunday as a weak tropical storm/depression and not a cyclone. Parts of SE Iran could get some rain from the storm as well.
Phet also caused high waves along UAE east coast.

Update:
Cyclone Phet made landfall over Oman eastern coast. Now it is over the interior regions of eastern Oman. Highest rainfall so far more than 300mm, with Sur getting around 250mm of rain.

Phet inside Oman

Eye of Cyclone Phet is nearing lanfall at Oman Coast

The eye of Phet makes landfall on Oman eastern coast:

Where? Somwhere between north of Masirah island and Sur city. But clouds extending 200 to 300 Km outside the eye will gurantee storm conditions in all of Oman eastern coast regardless whether the eye hits or not. The eye right now is very close to Masirah island and it must be incredibly stormy there now.
When: the eye of Phet will make landfall during the first 12 hours of Friday. But stormy conditions have already started gaining momentum in most of Oman eastern coasts as storm clouds extend at least 200 Km outside of the eye.

Red coastline is prone to a direct hit from the eye of cyclone Phet

How much rain for Oman?
anywhere from 100 mm to 500mm or much more accumulation of rain over Phet path.

Winds?
The eye will pack winds between 150 Km/hr and possibly closer to 200 Km/hr. Many areas of eastern Oman will experience winds around 100 Km/hr.

Tornadoes as well?
Yes why not, cyclones do produce tornadoes sometimes

Storm surge?
High storm surge and huge waves to batter Oman eastern coast. Large waves (but not as severe) could also reach UAE east coast.

What does the eye pack?
The area surrounding the eye (eye wall) contains the higest winds and the strongest thunderstorms (probably right now on earth) with flooding rain and huge storm surge. Wherever the eye hits, it is a total mess.

Photo of Flood in Egypt (source: storm.ae)

____________________________

 

This is what I like about the weather. There are no strict rules the weather has to follow. The element of surprise is always there, and there could always be extreme weather anywhere in the world. At such times, one wonders if the definition of “average weather” has any meaning at all.

Anyways, extreme weather happens when the right ingredients come at the right time and in the right place, potentially resulting in a natural disaster often in the wrong place. And this time, extreme weather has decided to pay Egypt, one of the driest places on earth, a nasty visit!

Rainfall in Egypt is mainly confined to a narrow area along north coast (i.e. Alexandria) where Middeteranian lows hardly graze the north coasts. While average rainfall along the north coast can reach 200mm per year, rainfall amount drops significantly in interior areas of Egypt, where Cairo hardly received 10mm of rain per year, if nothing at all, due to very dry desert air, which makes all cold fronts very dry ones. South of Cairo, only a trace of rain is recorded, or in most cases no rain at all. Some areas can experience no rain for several years.

Egypt-map

But tomorrow (Sunday Jan 17, 2010), a deep upper low that will dive more southward than normal, drawing with it lots of equatorial moisture, and mixing it with cold air aloft, will result in a wide area of extreme rainfall and strong thunderstorms in the eastern half of the interior region of Egypt. Many areas could exceed 50mm of rain within the span of 24 hours only (if not less than 12 hours). And should strong thunderstorms hit, there could be as much as 100mm or 150mm in those areas. With such a very unstable atmosphere, it is hard to pinpoint exaclty where extreme rainfall will hit, but the NE quadrant of Egypt from all the way from the north coast to the mid interior areas of Egypt could experience very heavy rain. But the mountaineous areas of Egypt should really watch out for runoffs and flash floods. I can’t imagine what exactly will happen in an area that hardly receives 10 mm or no rain per year.

500mb heights Moday 00:00 GMT Jan 17, 2010

Rainfall on Sunday Jan 17, 2010

Rain and thunderstorms will also spread quickly to other countries (that are more accustomed to rain) such as Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and NW Saudi Arabia. It is important to note that all of these areas are prone to very heavy rain as well. However, 2 points make interior areas of Egypt under the spotlight: First, it doesn’t rain there and Second is that extreme rainfall will fall in a very short period of time.

Rainfall on Monday Jan 18, 2010

Surface Chart. High Pressure dominates the region

• Precipitation: Late November and December were wetter than normal across many parts of the Arabian Peninsula, the Arabian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman. All gulf countries experienced rain this Decemebr including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. Two areas of exceptional rainfall: 1) Western Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea, especially Jeddah and its surrounding, where floods have wrecked havoc on Jeddah late November with probably around 100m in less than 24 hours if not less than 12 hours. 2) The UAE between Dec 11 and 13 experienced heavy rain and thunderstorms with more than 100mm of rain accumulation in central UAE, mainly between Abu Dhabi and eastern mountain of the UAE near Al Ain and Oman borders. Around150mm were recorded in Al Foah in the UAE in just 48 hours. Another good thing about December is how frequent those troughs and low pressures were, with weekly rain events in the region, and an absence of high pressure systems that usually bring cold air.

 

•  Temperature: This winter is exceptionally warmer than normal, especially in northern Arabian Peninsula. If you look at Kuwait for example, the normal average high temperature in Dec is 19c, but actual high temperature in Dec 2009 is 21c with 17 days of highs of 22 or higher. The first week of January also recorded average high of 21c even though normal high is 18c, and it looks that the next 2 weeks are going to be even warmer with average highs of 22c, reaching 26 by mid January. There might be times where eastern gulf countries like the UAE, Oman, and Qatar will experience cooler days! This warmer weather is not confined to Kuwait. In fact, the whole region is warmer, but it is more visible in northern Arabian Peninsula which is accustomed to cold winter and not a mild one. In the UAE winter has also been warmer than average, but I guess it is slightly above normal. And those frequent rain waves made things feel like winter.

 

• What is Next? Things have calmed down big time after Jan 1st, 2010 which brought heavy thunderstorms and hail to the UAE. A high pressure has taken control of the regional gulf weather. But cold weather has not yet made its way to the region as typical with every January and December. It seems Mr. Cold Air has decided to spend his winter vacation in Europe! And the outlook for the next 10 days is more calm mild sunny weather for the whole region with a bit of a warming trend sometimes. But, the UAE and northern Oman could experience a few isolated thundershowers between Sunday and Monday (very low chance) as an upper low dives in from NE Iran. Otherwise, things seem to be pretty calm.

• Saudi Arabia flood deaths in Jeddah exceeded 100. Very sad indeed. Apparently rainfall total reached 150mm, according to Jim Andrews’s analysis, with more thunderstorms still possible there
• UAE weather has become cooler as Shamal winds behind a weak cold front have reached the UAE since last Sunday
• Meteorological winter has started on Dec 1st
• Unstable weather (quite prolonged) to make a comeback across Arabia starting from today. Showers/thunderstorms will start forming in western and central Saudi Arabia (including Jeddah), all the way to Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, and possibly the UAE later (a big ?). central southern Iran and western Iraq will be affected as well. All that is set to take place between today Dec and at least through Wednesday Dec 9. And it seems that somewhere in the Arabian Gulf big amounts of rain are possible. It is yet to determine the exact intensity and coverage of this weather system

Rain/Snow forecast for next 15 days

Parts of Saudi Arabia have seen intense thunderstorms today on Nov 25 with Jeddah receiving 70mm in less than 12 hours as thunderstorms exapand to the holy city of Mecca. There are reports of death cases in Jeddah due to the flood. We should all pray for the safety of all people and pilgrims currently in Saudi Arabia.

Storms rumbling through Saudi Arabia

This low pressure system is set to intensify further and produce heavy rain over the northern portion of the Arabian Gulf including surrounding cities in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for at least 3 days (Thursday to Saturday). Later the associated cold front of the system is forecasted to arrive into the UAE bringing thundershowers and cooler air with it.World Meteorological Organization listed Jeddah as a severe weather are with 70mm of rain.