Monday Jan 30, 2012:

A long-wave upper air trough digs over the Mediterranean, with widespread rainfall over much of Jordan, northern Egypt including Sina’a, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. This time rain is likely to fall over interior areas that are usually dry.

Tuesday Jan 31, 2012:

Rain is expected to extend to northern half of Iraq and western Iran. A new surface low starts to form over northern KSA, with some thundershowers possible over northern red sea coasts of KSA. The low is expected to pull southerly winds ahead of its track, driving temperature upward over all the gulf countries of Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, KSA, and Kuwait. Dusty and gusty winds are possible over central and northern KSA, Kuwait, and northern Arabian Sea (along Kuwait and Iraq) which will become unusually rough. By Tuesday night, a rainy clouds start to develop over parts of KSA and Kuwait. Remaining wet over coastal Mediterranean.

Wednesday Feb 1, 2012:

February to start quite wet over Kuwait as moderate rainfall is expected to fall there including surrounding regions of KSA, parts of Iraq, with heavy rainfall over much of southwestern Iran. Arabian Gulf remains choppy, and remaining wet over coastal Mediterranean. Temperature cools down in Kuwait and northern KSA, but remaining warm over the rest of the gulf countries.

Thursday – Friday Feb 2-3, 2012:

Drying up as cooler northwesterly winds and a surface high gradually build up over KSA, Bahrain, and Qatar by Thursday, before reaching the UAE by Friday. Temperature fall to normal levels. This winter proves to be incredibly dry over the UAE as the impact of this low is minimal over the UAE.

Expected rainfall from Jan 29 to Feb 2, 2012

Synoptic weather:

After delivering rain to parts of the Mediterranean and northten Egypt, A mid-level low pressure is expected to move eastward towards southwestern Asian countries of Iran and afghanistan. With surface lows and fronts forming ahead and eastward of the upper lows, rain will fall over Iraq, Iran, then afghanistan, and Pakistan , with a cold front developing over the Gulf of Oman, northern Arabian Sea, southwestern Pakistan by Saturday Jan 21. Colder air along with a surface high will take over westward of the cold front, impacting much of the Arabian Peninsulua.

Colder Air Pushes Through:

Colder air will start making its way to the region by late Friday as windier conditions prevail , and it will be coldest in northern Arabia. Saturday and Sunday Jan 21-22 will be the coolest as daytime temperatures will fall 4-8 degrees below normal. Subsequent days will continue to be below normal, but less extreme. Kuwait and Riyadh daytime temperature on Saturday/Sunday will struggle to go above 12c with nights being quite chilly, possibly going below to -5 degrees. Bahrain and Qatar daytime temperatures will fall to mid-teens with some gusty winds on Saturday. In the UAE, daytime temperatures will be between 17-21 but with very windy conditions, and Muscat to be in early 20s.

A Lot of Winds For Some:

The Arabian Gulf will be the scene of very strong winds on Saturday with very rough sea conditions. Offshore winds will easily go beyond 60 Km/hr. UAE cities will be less extreme, but still gusty winds will blow over the northern coastlines. Winds will be between 40-50 km/hr with occasional gusts to above 50 km/hr. One area of concern is the east coast of the UAE where winds might gust beyond 60 km/hr. Open areas in northern UAE will be prone to localized dust, but coastal areas will experience fresh strong cool winds blowing from the sea. Winds will make it feel even cooler.

Unusual rain areas:

Southwest Pakistan, northern Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Oman will be under the influence of thunderstorms and rain on Saturday Jan 21.

Chance of showers for the UAE:

Small chance isolated rain showers over UAE coastlines between Saturday and Sunday. But the chance increases by Monday as a an upper air trough dives southward over the gulf, bringing some showers to northern UAE.

Some showers, and some in unusual places

A few isolated thundershowers could affect parts of Saudi Arabia between late Saturday Jan 7 and early Monday Jan 9. The highest chance, although small, is over Jeddah and central parts of central Saudi Arabia that might reach Kuwait and upper parts of the Arabian Gulf. A rather unusual spot for showers will be southest coastal Pakistan and eastern Gulf of Oman on Tuesday.

Wet and Cool for the Mediterranean

A series of cold fronts and low pressures continue to impact the Mediterranean countries, especially the coastlines, with rain and some coastal thundershowers that could sometimes affect northern Egypt. This trend is expected to continue to mid January, after which cooler weather is expected to arrive, bringing temperatures down. This colder air is expected to find its way to the northern Arabian Peninsula around and after mid January.

A sunny start for Winter

Warmer for the Arabian Peninsula, cooler after mid January

Most of the Arabian Gulf countries will experience warmer than normal daytime temperatures up to Jan 12-13. Some cities will be just 1 or 2 degrees above normal such as Muscat, and others will be 5 to 7 degrees above normal such as Kuwait and Riyadh. Temperatures will be in the 20s for most of the Arabian Gulf countries. This in contrast to the fact that January is the coldest month of the year. But temperatures will quickly go from above to below normal after Jan 14, as cold air behind Mediterranean lows moves southeastward. Of course, the impact of the cold air gets eroded by the time it reaches eastern gulf such the UAE and Oman, bringing a much less intense change in temperatures, but still cooler than normal. Daytime temperatures after mid January could fall to early teens over Kuwait and Riyadh, mid teens over Bahrain, late teens over Doha, and early 20s over the UAE and Muscat. The cities that will (not) go much above normal during the next days will be the same ones that will (not) go much below normal after mid January. Somegusty winds are likely to accompany the coldwave over the Arabian Gulf.

Lightning strikes in KSA on Feb 8, 2011.

Feb 8-9: A few showers

UAE weather details: partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions are expected on Feb 9th with scatterred light showers affecting northern/northeastern UAE.

A few scatterred rain showers (sometimes thundery), with periods of clouds and sunshine affected the Arabian Gulf countries of Kuwait, Bahrain, , parts of Saudi Arabia (central, western Red Sea coast, and Arabian Gulf coast) on Feb 8th. The chance of widespread rain is not high as rain showers are likely to be isolated to scatterred. However, that doesn’t rule out the possibilty for some thunderstorms. Elsewhere, showers could extend to parts of the Meditterranean, northern Egypt, and Iraq while Iran is expected to receive more rainfall especially SE Iran.

Feb 10-13: Numerous Showers for others:

An upper low pressure moving southward over Iran will result in rainfall/mountain snow over much of Iran and Afghanistan . However, southeast Iran near the Arabian Sea is expected to recive moderate rainfall with even some thundershowers. As a cold front develops and moves to upper portion of the Arabian Sea, the area of rain and thundershowers is going to move eastward, delivering rain showers to much of western half of Pakistan, including the usually dry southwestern Pakistan. The last time this area received proper rainfall is during cyclone Phet. There will also be snowfall and rain over northern Pakistan. Later by Sunday, the front moves eastward/northeastward, bringing chance of showers to even south central Pakistan which is very dry during winter.

Rain will also continue in parts of the Mediterranean. Some rain showers and thundershowers could extend to Gulf of Oman and Omani coasts at some times. A few showers (with little thunder) affected NE areas of UAE and along the east coast as Ras Al Khaymah recorded 2.2mm while Jees mountain recorded 4.2mm. Showers also affected Shawkah and Fujairah.

 Cooler weather with below average day-time temperatures for the UAE in addition to westerly winds starting Feb 12 and lasting for a few days.

Heaviest rainfall recorded of more than 150mm in Saudi Arabia.

The Big Picture:

The area shaded blue has a chance of experiencing such conditions. Not all areas will be affected at the same time as low pressure systems travelling eastward result in rainfall over certain places.

• This is NOT a severe weather event , but there could be heavy rainfall over some areas
• Not all areas will be affected at the same time as low pressure systems travelling eastward result in rainfall over certain places
• Different countries will experiece this weather at different times between Jan 13 and 21
• Some countries might experiece thunderstorms bringing heavy rainfall and high winds
• Countries possibly to be affected include Egypt, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and parts of Oman and Pakistan

 Daily Weather Details:

• January 13: An upper air low pressure system has started digging southward over Egypt and North Africa, with upper low pressure lines extending to western Saudi Arabia. Makkah received moderate wetting of rainfall of 20mm (photo) and Jeddah received 6 mm.
• January 14-15: Rainy clouds (with thunder) over Northern Egypt and the Mediterranean countries as a surface low pressure system advances. Higher rainfall over coastal areas. Another belt of clouds with rain, showers, and thunderstorms to form over western Saudi Arabia from Red Sea coasts of Jeddah (where 26 mm of rain was record -photo of thunderstorm in Jeddah) and Makkah all the way to the northern and central Arabian Gulf coast passing by Central Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and extending to a large part of western Iran and much of Iraq (see satellite image of clouds Jan 15). Rainfall in Iran could be heavy with snow over several areas. Some rain/snow showers over Northern Pakistan. Periods of clouds in the Arabian Gulf countries of Qatar and Bahrain. Dusty southerly winds in the UAE.
• January 16: A belt of clouds from southwestern Saudi Arabia to centeal Arabian Gulf. Some showers in Central Saudi Arabia possibly extending to Bahrain and Qatar. Moderate to heavy rain/snow continuing over Iran, especially southern region. Showers over coastal Mediterranean. Becoming warm in the UAE with souterly winds as a low pressure centers over eastern Iran, drawing southerly warm winds over the UAE, before northwesterly winds arrive later in the day. A zone of temperature difference between eastern and central Arabian Peninsula formed. The next plunging upper low pressure will feed on this temperature difference and result in widespread showers and rain in the Arabian Gulf.
• January 17: the belt of clouds from moved southeastward to cover the UAE, Bahrain, central and southern Saudi Arabia, and the Arabian Gulf to southeastern Iran with some showers/drizzle in some places during the day. Later at night the chance of some showers continue in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, the Arabian Gulf and southern and central Saudi Arabia. An area of moderate rain (rain radar image) has formed over the Arabian Gulf and southern Qatar. The clouds/rain increase in response to an upper-air trough from a plunging upper low pressure over Egypt which could deliver rain and thunderstorms to parts of Egypt, the Meditterranean, and nortwest Saudi Arabia.
• Janurary 18: The low pressure over Egypt starts moving eastward with continued showers over Egypt, the Meditterranean, and northwest Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, a large area of clouds with areas of rain showers developed over the Arabian Gulf to Central Saudi Arabia including Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. The UAE received some showers over northern areas while the rest of the country remained cloudy. However, persistent light to moderate and sometimes heavy rain affected Qatar, Bahrain, central Saudi Arabia including Riyadh and Al Dammam where an astonishing 142 mm of rain has been recored. Riyadh closed schools with several traffic problems. Temperatures struggled to exceed 10c in Riyadh with cold rain falling while Bahrain and Qatar enjoyed cool temperatures between 13 and 17 with persisten rain. Later, a cold front developed with more clouds extending to southern Red Sea into Equatorial Africa all the way to southeastern Iran, passing by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. This cloud cover could contain periods of rain (sometimes heavy), showers, and thunderstorms, impacting those countries during the late hours of Tuesday. In the UAE, the chance of rain continues in northern areas, but overall the country remains largely dry.
• January 19: the front continue delivering cloudy periods over the Arabian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and southeastern Iran, with rain ending there. A few light showers and drizzle in UAE as clouds move eastward. Some clouds with light rain in western Pakistan.
• January 20: Periods of subshine, clouds and chance of showers in the UAE, southern Saudi Arabia, extreme northwestern Oman, southeastern Iran, and western Pakistan. A few thunderstorms in central Saudi Arabia. Later at night, thundershowers affected Abu Dhabi, Al Ain, and western UAE
• January 21: Several Showers and rain clouds moving to the UAE. Almost all areas received rain. Highest rainfall of more than 30mm in Al Ghuwaiefat (western area). Showers also affected Saudi Arabia and parts of Oman
• January 22-24: Showers in Oman and small chance for southern UAE.


Rain clouds detected in the UAE at 7:40 AM Jan 21



Huge cloud cover that brought persistent rainfall over Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. Jan 18

Behind the Scenes and the Recently Missing Piece of the Puzzle (for those who are interested!):

• A couple of low pressure systems trailing eastward from Egypt to Iran, passing by the Meditterranean, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq
• Cooler air flowing from the low pressure systems
• Missing piece of the puzzle: Abundant moist and warm air flowing from Equatorial Africa to the heart of the Arabian Peninsula. This has been missing since the November, which helped result in drier conditions accross much of Arabia.
• Cooler air colliding with a moist air mass over the Arabian Peninsula resulting in rain clouds

The Middle East is probably the last region that comes into any person’s mind with regard to weather-related fatalities and disasters. Here are notable weather events in the Middle East in 2010, starting and ending with the typically very dry Egypt (!!) :

• At least 10 fatalities in Egypt due to heavy thunderstorms and flooding rain Jan 17th and 18th
• Strong thunderstorms resulting in 4 casualities in the UAE on Feb 28th
• Heavy thunderstorms in Saudi Arabia in April, May, and July which resulted in at least 7 fatalities
• The infamous cyclone Phet (see above image) killing at least 24 people in Oman in June
• Pakistan disasterous floods in August
• Damaging Eastern Miditerranean winter storm in December, after prolonged drought and forest fires
• Red Sea storm killing at least 4 in Saudi Arabia and at least 5 in Egypt in December

I will let you decide whether those weather events were really severe or people in the Middle East are generally not prepared to handle such weather events.

At least 5 people were killed by the storms in Egypt and 4 people in Makkah as well..

An unusual track for a storm

A powerful storm affected Egypt, the Red Sea, and NW Saudi Arabia.

To get a severe weather event, the “right” ingredients must come at the “right” time. Put them in the “wrong” place and you end up with a potentially life-threatening severe weather event. And this time severe weather itself has decided to take a rather strange track.

The following areas were hit hard by this storm during which strong thunderstorms struck between Dec 28 and 30 with the greatest impact on Dec 29th and 30th. These are the areas where widespread rainfall of 25 to 50mm was recorded with severe thunderstorms. Even worse, localized accumulations of up to 100 mm must have been observed, resulting in flash flood scenarios especially around mountains.

1. The Red Sea
2. Western Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia (including Jeddah and Makkah)
3. Central and Eastern Egypt

Areas with light and moderate rainfall:

1. Other parts of Egypt
2. Mediterranean countries (mainly parts of Jordan, Syria, Palestine, and Lebanon)
3. Central NW Saudi Arabia and parts of  Kuwait
4. Iraq and Western Iran

Timeline of the storm

A few showers erupted over the Red Sea on Tuesday Dec 28th.

During the early hours of Wednesday Dec 29, thunderstorms quickly erupted over Northern and central Red Sea, Northwestern Saudi Arabia including Jeddah, and Central and Eastern Egypt, giving way to severe to strong thunderstorms and excessive rainfall. Light to moderate rainfall also spread to Jordan, Syria, and other Mediterranean countries.

On Dec 30, heavy thunderstorms moved to central Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia with heavy impact on Jeddah and Makkah and other Saudi coasts with strong thunderstorms. A strong thunderstorm that turned day into night hit Makkah. By Dec 31, rain and showers also extended to central Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran.

Dynamics of the storm

An upper-air cold low pressure has plunged southward and lost its way from Southern Europe (cut-off low), and on Dec 27 it was  wandering over North Africa over Libya. It headed eastward towards the typically dry central and Eastern parts of Egypt and eventually crossed the Red Sea. The location and track of this upper low was by itself exceptional. This upper low helped pull in cold upper air. However, for rain to fall, moisture is needed.

The Red Sea has been exceptionally warm and moist. The sea surface temperature of the Red Sea is in the late 20s with a large area of 28c, which is  typical of tropical oceans. There is also relatively high water vapor content (relatively high precipitable water). This has resulted in several days of isolated thunderstorms over the Red Sea during the last few weeks. Equatorial African moisture has been extending to southern and middle parts of the Red Sea. This area over and around the Red Sea is full of potential energy that is waiting for a small spark for widespread thunderstorms to occur.

The upper low was already pulling in Equatorial African moisture and collided with the already energetic warm moist air mass over the Red Sea. This is a classic ingredient for severe thunderstorms.

A strong winter storm hit Eastern Mediterranean countries between December 10th and 14th, 2010. Wet weather also affected Iraq, Iran, as well as the Arabian Peninsula.

Brief summary of factors behind this wet outlook: An area of deep low pressure in the middle and lower atmosphere formed over the eastern Mediterranean region along with cold air coming from northern Europe. Several areas in southeastern Europe like Turkey received their first snow from this storm. The storm also benefited from supply of moist air from the African equator. The storm packed strong gusty winds with it along with extremely rough sea conditions over the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Below is the weather conditions for the region from December 9th to December 14th:

Eastern Mediterranean (Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt):

• The storm brought cold air with temperatures plunging by Sunday Dec 12th.
• The storm’s strongest impact was felt along coastal Lebanon, coastal Palestine, and coastal Syria. These are the areas where rainfall accumulation could have exceeded 100mm and could have reached the 200mm mark between December 10th and 14th. Most of the areas easily recorded 100mm of rain. The first round of rain arrived by the early hours of Friday December 10th. This image shows forecast of rainfall accumulation.
• Jordan (especially northern areas) and interior areas of Syria are also expected to receive rain, but not as heavy as coastal areas. Those areas, however, are expected to bear the brunt of the cold air as freezing night temperatures are possible. This resulted in wintry mix (rain, freezing rain, or sleet) with heavy snowfall during night time especially in Damascus. Moreover, mountain ranges of Palestinem Jorda, Syria, and Lebanon received substantial snowfall.
• The storm produced damaging strong gusty winds between Dec 11th and 12th. Again coastal especially lebanon areas were hit hard as winds exceeded 800 Km/hr. Sea conditions were extremely rough and stormy.
• Needless to say, coastal areas were in for large amounts of rain that resulted in flooding over mountainous areas and wadis.
• Northern coastal Egypt received heavy rain showers with strong gusty winds. Inland, duststorms and high winds prevailed which also extended to parts of Jordan.

Iraq and Iran:

• A few scaterred thunderstorms and rain showers affected Iraq and Iran as well. Highest accumulation of rain are over eastern half of Iraq and western half of Iran. Snow is also possible on moutainous areas of Iran. By December 13th, duststorms affected Iraq.

Arabian Peninsula:

• Thunderstorms erupted over Saudi Arabia areas along the Red Sea on December 9th and 10th . Between December 10th and 11th Scaterred showers and a few thunderstorms could spread (with less intensity and coverage) to central parts of Saudi Arabia.
• Gusty winds with duststorms developed over the Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Arabian Gulf, Bahrain, Qatar, and will reach the UAE on December 14th. Sea conditions are expected to be very rough.

More weird weather on the way!

May, a month that is supposed to be dry, one month away from June, the start of summer, will start with a fresh and strong round of thunderstorms and rain over central and NW Arabian Peninsula.

A deep low (typical of late winter) will pass over Turkey and cooler air into northern Arabia, resulting in explosive thunderstorms over a large part of Saudi Arabia. Western Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are also at risk of these thunderstorms. Rain and thunderstorms will also extend to much of Iraq and western Iran. The middeteranian countries and Egypt might also be getting some showers and a few thunderstorms.

God help Saudi Arabia from these monsterous thunderstorms! The probability of flood is there!

Rainfall during the next 7 days. Purple spots indicate heavy rain