Colder air will start impacting the Arabian Peninsulua starting late Friday Jan 20th, as a surface high pressure trails behind an upper low and its associated cold front over southwest Asia. Three weather parameters to highlight: Colder Air, Winds, and Rain.
Synoptic weather:
After delivering rain to parts of the Mediterranean and northten Egypt, A mid-level low pressure is expected to move eastward towards southwestern Asian countries of Iran and afghanistan. With surface lows and fronts forming ahead and eastward of the upper lows, rain will fall over Iraq, Iran, then afghanistan, and Pakistan , with a cold front developing over the Gulf of Oman, northern Arabian Sea, southwestern Pakistan by Saturday Jan 21. Colder air along with a surface high will take over westward of the cold front, impacting much of the Arabian Peninsulua.
Colder Air Pushes Through:
Colder air will start making its way to the region by late Friday as windier conditions prevail , and it will be coldest in northern Arabia. Saturday and Sunday Jan 21-22 will be the coolest as daytime temperatures will fall 4-8 degrees below normal. Subsequent days will continue to be below normal, but less extreme. Kuwait and Riyadh daytime temperature on Saturday/Sunday will struggle to go above 12c with nights being quite chilly, possibly going below to -5 degrees. Bahrain and Qatar daytime temperatures will fall to mid-teens with some gusty winds on Saturday. In the UAE, daytime temperatures will be between 17-21 but with very windy conditions, and Muscat to be in early 20s.
A Lot of Winds For Some:
The Arabian Gulf will be the scene of very strong winds on Saturday with very rough sea conditions. Offshore winds will easily go beyond 60 Km/hr. UAE cities will be less extreme, but still gusty winds will blow over the northern coastlines. Winds will be between 40-50 km/hr with occasional gusts to above 50 km/hr. One area of concern is the east coast of the UAE where winds might gust beyond 60 km/hr. Open areas in northern UAE will be prone to localized dust, but coastal areas will experience fresh strong cool winds blowing from the sea. Winds will make it feel even cooler.
Unusual rain areas:
Southwest Pakistan, northern Arabian Sea, and Gulf of Oman will be under the influence of thunderstorms and rain on Saturday Jan 21.
Chance of showers for the UAE:
Small chance isolated rain showers over UAE coastlines between Saturday and Sunday. But the chance increases by Monday as a an upper air trough dives southward over the gulf, bringing some showers to northern UAE.
Oh wow!! Thanks for the update! will there be any cloudy or partly cloudy conditions along with the winds?
Yes of course. I will be posting an update about the chance of showers as well.
Any chances of jet stream devloping?
Jet stream is high altitude wind that exists during winter in our region.
I remember it was jetstreams that caused heavy rainfall during 2006 winter.. Are jetstreams normally there or any specifc ones cause heavy rainfall in UAE?
Jet streams are not, by themselves, requirement for rain. They are higher up in the atmosphere. The tropics for example don’t have jet streams. Jet streams form in location where there is big temperature difference between the upper layers. What delivers rain is upward motion, cooling, condensing, and converging moist winds. However, jet streams tend to reflect the overall upper lows positions. And certain angles and speeds of the jet stream help increase upward motion.
Thanks for the detailed explaination! Much appreciated…