Jun 3rd 10AM GMT update:
Phet clouds have started bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to a large part of coastal Oman especially Masirah island. Dangerous weather conditions to affect the area there.
Most models predict Phet to move NE soon after entering Oman, but there are signs from US models it will continue moving NW, multiplying the amount of rain falling over Oman.
Jun 3 9AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on the eastern coast of Oman (as a category2-4) Friday AM around the area of Maisrah island, then its expected to move over the coast towards Sur. But heavy rain and high winds will extend 200 or 300 Km around the eye.
Jun 3 4AM GMT update
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on Oman eastern coast tonight (thu Jun 3) as a weaker category 2 or 3 cyclone but still very dangerous.
June2, 3PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to hit Oman as a full fledged category 3-5 cyclones with destruction possible around the path of the eye.
Phet updated track
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Jun 2, 1PM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet to graze Oman coast as a category 5 cyclone. Even if the eye (which packs winds more than 220 Km/hr) stays offshore, the clouds extending out of the cyclone will hit easternmost Oman. There is a small possibility that the eye makes landfall over easternmost Oman, bringing deadly weather conditions!
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June 2, 8AM GMT:
Cyclone Phet (category 3 now) and will reach category 4 on Thu Jun 3, 2010.
Phet will either
1- move NW very close to Oman easternmost coast, bring heavy rain, high winds, and high waves to easternmost Oman, or
2- make landfall over easternmost coast of Oman with destructive winds, flooding rain, and significant storm surge to a large part of eastern Oman.
June 2, 6AM GMT update:
Cyclone Phet will soon be a category 4 cyclone. Potential impact on Oman.
Cyclone Phet is expected to take one of 2 possible scenarios:
1- stay offshore Oman coast and curve NE towarda pakistan
2- continue moving NW and make landfall on Oman east coast, before curving NE towarda Pakistan
Nevertheless, Oman east coast is under the threat of heavy rain, gusty winds, and high waves even if the cyclone stays offshore.
June 1st evening update:
Tropical storm Phet in the Arabian Sea is now upgraded to a cyclone . It packs winds of 120 km/hr or more around its centre. Pakistan and india are likely targets. But I can’t rule out a few side effects on Oman.
June 1 st update:
Cyclone Phet will continue moving N/NW during the next 24 hours, before curving NE towards Pakistan/Indian coasts. It is expected to strengthen to potentially category 2 cyclone. Wherever the eye makes landfall, severe damage due to destructive winds and flooding rain is possible. Meanwhile, easternmost of Oman could get affected by some rainy clouds, fresh winds, and high waves.
Cyclone Phet and its eye
June 2, 8AM GMT:
Thanks for the meteo update.
I have noticed that some models are expecting the track to be more to NW towards Oman as well as the possibility for the Cyclone to develope to Category 4 or even 5! Would you agree with this?
There are 2 expected tracks. One that keeps the storm away from Oman coast. And another that takes very close to or on Oman coast. But the first option is preferred by global cyclone models. Nevertheless, nothing is final and in both cases heavy rain clouds could reach easternmost Oman as the cyclone could be a category 4 or 5 when it comes close to Oman. If this moves close to Oman it could be worse than gonu which made landfall as a cat 1 cyclone only.
Dear Ahmed,
Thanks for the quick reply and excuse my modest meteo knowledge but when would you think Forecast models will start to fix a predictable storm track? Is it when the storm reaches its most strength?? If yes then this would,in my opinion, give a little time to prepare for the worst!
I hope things turn for the better InshaAllah
I guess the few coming hours will reveal the cyclones exact target.
Hoping Inshallah no harms to be caused either to Oman nor India/PK.
Greetings Ahmed,
Can you tell us the predicted storm track yet, we have a friend flying from Muscat to Pakistan tonight………
Thankyou,
Christine (In Muscat)
Hi Ahmed , is is still coming toward us , what are possibilities ?? 10% or 70% ?
shukran
There is an updated track now on my post
Ahmeeeeed
where i can find your updates ?
Mr Ahmed, are we in another Gonu this weekend, i have weeding can you inform me please?
الله ÙŠØÙظ الجميع الأخت Ùريدة توكلي على الله ÙÙŠ ØÙÙ„ الزواج مبروكيين
Go to my homepage. And updated track I there with my comments on it.
Our fingers are crossed now. I would say 40% impact on Oman. Next few hours are important.
Ahmed , what is your homrpage address ?
Ahmed , what is your homepage address ?
Yeaaah the last few days have been awful with high humidity and terrible temperatures…..so yeah we definitely need a bit of rain to cool things down as long as the cyclone is not destructive. Good luck Oman, Good luck the Sharqiya region and hope our Met office get it right!.
Nasser
is it safe to fly tomorrow as i have a flight out of oman
Useful info. I look forward to checking your updates.
thanks for the info
crossing our fingers that it wont do harm to us here in oman.
let us be prepared and pray.
It is unclear what the impact would be on muscat as of now. You need to check with the airports as they will definitely take the right action if flying conditions are not safe.
Thu is 3rd not 4th i hope your data is free of error
dear Ahmed,
can you tell me which cities of Oman are in danger?i am from Sur.
THANKS.
Thanks for pointing that out. I meant jun 3
I hope cyclone stays away from the PAK/Ind part even if it hits karachi as a tropical storm, it would mean a disaster with high casualties and damage.There aren’t even much alerts given across karachi most of the people think its just normal rains!!
This cyclone is not an easy one. It will be a category 5 cyclone while it grazes Oman coast before making a landfall over Pakistan as a category 3. All of this is the expected track as of now. There could be big changes still
Lets hope this will not effect badly in Oman. Let all of us pray to GOD.
thanks for d info i hope they can advice us also through media what is exactly happening coz i can see people in main muscat have different version that makes some people panic.
hope it wont get worst.
Hi Ahmed,
Any idea of the citys that are to be affected in Oman? Thanks for all the info so far. Appreciate!!!
i hope its will not hit oman if its dose run in ur under wear
i hope it will not hit oman inshallah
Nida,
Well so far Phet is moving towards Oman. It all God’s well.
At what expeted time will reach muscat. Is it affect in ruwi area or sur? can u give ur valuable advise.
It would be nice if Oman TV gave some English sub titles, we’ve been told to keep watching the news for updates, but all my English mates calling me cos they don’t know whats being said.
Masirah Island is being evacuated and Civil Defence teams have started in Quriyat – so far lots of cloud in Muscat – lets hope it keeps away
Bea, the Oman TV has been giving info on regular bases in English also. As for now please note all reading this, PHET has changed course and is going to pass through SUR, ASHKARA, MASIRAH and even possibly NIZWA. It is a serious warning… God bless all…
hi
is the storm going to pas through muscat or not?!!
it might hit first the area around Sur, then it “might” pass over Muscat as a weaker storm.
Listen it all depends on whether it hits Oman or moves close to Oman. That will be clear during the next 12 hours.
but heavy rain and winds will possibly hit Muscat.
hi ahmed
please update up us the current position of the phet.
Can u please update regarding its current path and impact areas, pls.
Hi! If the storm does not hit Muscat but we just get heavy rains, can we expect to see a knock-on effect from wadi flooding like we did during Gonu?
Best wishes to everyone and take care
thanks for giving the very crucial information at crucial time.Inshalla all will be well.give us the new updates.
The cyclone is still off the coast of Masirah, could make landfall any moment. Sur , ashkara, nizwa under serious threat. Muscat moderat. Still time to say what can happen…
I have found some very useful info on this. What are the chances of hitting it Karachi? At what Intensity? When will it be clearer whether or not it is gona hit Karachi?
Is there any new regarding cyclone Phet? Will it hits Oman and when?Thanks
Cyclone Phet to make landfall on the eastern coast of Oman Friday AM around the aria of Maisrah island, then its expected to move over the coast towards Sur. But heavy rain and high winds will extend 200 or 300 Km around the eye.
Please give update on weather in Muscat Oman,& update on cyclone phet,will keep praying for all
Muscat might still get heavy rain and high winds, but not as bad as the area around Masirah island and the coast south of Sur where the eye of Phet will make landfall with highest winds
50% of model is showing that it wl affect UAE east coast and UAE border wid oman..some small chances are also there in dubai and othr areas according to those model…and possibility of flash floods and winds in oman….
Do you think it will hit U.A.E? The storm path that you have indicated seems to go towards the empty quarter/Al-Ain?
I understand that the predicted path can change at any time, but what are the chances of it coming as a tropical storm to U.A.E?
Thanks for the updates; they are very informative.
Please give some more info about Phet, will it hits Muscat,if it will, when.Thanks
Gono in 2007 was not supposed to effect the UAE East coast and look what happened there!
Is there anyone out their that can say regardless of Phet’s current or predicted track that it would be wise to move your possessions to higher ground as the wave hight at high tide marks will be to much for the Fujairah coast line?
Can somebody tell me the current position/location of phet cyclone? has it already hit sur? or it has changed its direction towards karachi? please update