May 28th, 2010
May 30, 2010
A tropical depression has formed in the Arabian Sea and is being monitored for potential tropical development.
Tropical Depression in Arabian Sea
May 29, 2010:
There is an increased confidence that a tropical storm might form in the Arabian Sea during the next 5 days. More details later
May 28, 2010
There are hints from at least a couple of models (GFS and ECMWF) that the Arabian Sea might produce a tropical storm or even a cyclone in southeast Arabian Sea! The storm is shown to move northwest.
A majority of the models seemed to suggest that the system could be declared a cyclone by June 2 over east-central Arabian Sea (thehindubusinessline)
It is a wait game. We need to wait and see how persistent weather forecasts and models remain with regard to such a forecast. We also need to wait and see whether a low pressure systems starts organizing in SE Arabian Sea on or around May 30-31, 2010. The Arabian Sea often produces tropical storms, but is not considered very active when it comes to cyclones and tropical storms. Storms there are few and often weak and short-lived. However, strong storms do develop, albeit infrequently.
All countries along the shores of the Arabian Sea need to keep an eye on the potential for a cyclonic development during the next 5 to 7 days and subsequently the track it might take.
May 25th, 2010
The Arabian Sea usually produces a few tropical storms or even cyclones (mainly in May/June/Oct/Nov). The image below shows tropical storms tracks from 1891 to 2007 produced by the Indian Meteorological Dept (IMD).
North Indian Ocean Cyclones Tracks
It is very clear that among the Gulf countries, Oman and Yemen are at higher risk of getting hit by tropical storms or cyclones every year. While the Arabian Sea produces storms annually, Oman and Yemen are not affected every year. Even when they are affected, usually the storms are not severe (tropical storms or depression with winds below 119 Km/hr) and don’t reach cyclone status (winds above 119 Km/hr). However, the amount of rain that falls can be fatal by itself. Moreover, there are exceptions such as Cyclone Gonu which entered Gulf of Oman as a category 1 cyclone, but not before reaching a category 5 status while moving over the Arabian Sea before reaching Oman.
And after Cyclone Gonu shattered records by being the strongest storm in the Arabian Sea and by taking an unusual track into the Gulf of Oman, we need to keep an eye on the Arabian Sea for future storms development. During the next 45 days, chances are that another tropical storm or cyclone could form over the Arabian Sea. Although most of them hit India, we need to remeber the potential of those storms to move to the west or northwest approaching Oman or Yemen.
May 21st, 2010
Update: May 25, 2010
Tropical Storm Bandu has subsided and faded away after entering the Gulf of Aden. Most of the rain fell mainly offshore. Some heavy rain fell over Yemen. However, Yemen escaped the worst of the storm even though damages to some villages were reported to be severe.
Nevertheless, Tropical Storm Bandu did take somehow an unusual track by entering tge Gulf of Aden as very few storms did so. Are Arabian Sea Tropical storms/cyclones becoming more invasive after entering Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Oman in 2007!?
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A tropical cyclone (named Bandu) has been churning in the southern Arabian Sea for the last few days off the coast of Somalia. The Arabian Sea forms part of the North Indian ocean, which has seen two cyclones form in the last five days. The first being cyclone Laila in the Bay of Bengal which has already affected the eastern coast of India, and the second storm is in the Arabian Sea.
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Satellite View of Tropical Storm Bandu (May 21, 2010)
Currently the cyclone packs winds of 105 km/hr around the eye of the storm with gusts of 130 Km/hr. The cyclone is very close to becoming a category 1 cyclone of winds of 119 Km/hr. The storm is currently unleashing heavy rain in Socatra. The system is expected to move into the Gulf of Aden with a potential landing on the eastern coast of Yemen. However, it is expected to weaken by the time it reaches Yemen. But, it might deliver heavy rain, floods, and gusty winds.
Tropical Storm Bandu Forecasted Track
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