There are two ways to tell whether the peak of summer has arrived. The common way is when temperatures go really high. But there is another way that I like more and is less conventional. For me the peak of summer in Arabia (or the UAE) is when easterlies take over, clouds from the Arabian sea cover the Eastern third of Arabia, and tropical thunderstorms or rain cover Oman (I’m not talking about cyclones). It is as if the Indian Monsoon is extending to the Arabian Peninsula. But this doesn’t happen every summer or every July. In fact during July 1995 a similar event happened and Sharjah recorded 53mm of rain ! This was unusual since we are more accustomed to summer rainfall being restricted to mountaineous areas only.
Now something similar “MAY” happen during the next few days (specifically between July 17 and 20). The GFS model has been predicting rain over NE Oman and the surrounding areas. Sometimes the model has also been predicting some rainfall over the Empty Quarter, parts of KSA, and even Eastern UAE. Please be aware the newer issues of GFS model forecast might indicate a different story. Please use the GFS links on the leftside bar of this page for quick access to GFS precipitation forecast.
Precipitation forecast (see 1st panel for next 7-day rainfall).
I think the only countries that seem to have a good chance of seeing some rain over the next few days are Oman and parts of Yemen. This is largely due to their proximity to the Arabian Sea. However, it is a bit early to determine what may happen as forecasts are prone to changes. Should the forecasts of a tropical weather extending to Oman materialize, we can’t rule out clouds covering many parts of Arabia including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and parts of KSA. This may even make some areas known for their dry air to become more humid like Kuwait.
The name of the game is to wait for a few more days until more details emerge.
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