Long-range forecasts are hinting at a possible tropical low or a tropical storm forming in the Arabian Sea. The forecasts are calling for a westward movement towards the Arabian Peninsula. The effects (if any) will be felt mainly in Yemen and Southern Oman.
This remains a long-range forecast. However, confidence of a tropical low formation has risen in the last 48 hours as the Global Forecasting System (GFS) has been consistently predicting the tropical system. The GFS is a widely used weather computer model that generates weather forecasts. The image below shows the initial effect on Yemen and Oman in terms of rain.
GFS precipitation forecast for Oct 22, 2008
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Jim Andrews, international weather expert at accuweather.com, has mentioned the following in his Oct 14, 2008 blog entry:
“If the week would see a tropical depression or tropical cyclone over the northern Indian Ocean, it would likely happen over the southern Arabian Sea. As of Tuesday, this area has seen some waxing of convective rain/thunderstorms along the Inter Tropical Convergence. But nothing well-organized.”
Click here to go to Jim’s Oct 14, 2008 blog entry.
There remains doubts of the tropical system’s effect on Arabia and other countries in the region. Long-range forecasts (more than 5 days) have a large margin of error, so the only thing we can do now is to keep an eye on the Arabian Sea.
Salalah in southern Oman has ‘tropical lows’ every few years. I was in Salalah the last time – Summer 2002 . It flooded most sea facing wadis and unfortunately caused several deaths. Hopefully this formation will only drop a little rain.