Emirates Meteorology Blog

Since we have gone through around 40% of this winter which started in December 2009 and lasts till the end of February 2010 (meteorological winter). I have a few points to highlight:

Surface Chart. High Pressure dominates the region

• Precipitation: Late November and December were wetter than normal across many parts of the Arabian Peninsula, the Arabian Gulf, and the Gulf of Oman. All gulf countries experienced rain this Decemebr including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the UAE. Two areas of exceptional rainfall: 1) Western Saudi Arabia along the Red Sea, especially Jeddah and its surrounding, where floods have wrecked havoc on Jeddah late November with probably more than 100m in less than 24 hours if not less than 12 hours. 2) The UAE between Dec 11 and 13 experienced heavy rain and thunderstorms with more than 100mm of rain accumulation in central UAE, mainly between Abu Dhabi and eastern mountain of the UAE near Al Ain and Oman borders. Around150mm were recorded in Al Foah in the UAE in just 48 hours. Another good thing about December is how frequent those troughs and low pressures were, with weekly rain events in the region, and an absence of high pressure systems that usually bring cold air.

•  Temperature: This winter is exceptionally warmer than normal, especially in northern Arabian Peninsula. If you look at Kuwait for example, the normal average high temperature in Dec is 19c, but actual high temperature in Dec 2009 is 21c with 17 days of highs of 22 or higher. The first week of January also recorded average high of 21c even though normal high is 18c, and it looks that the next 2 weeks are going to be even warmer with average highs of 22c, reaching 26 by mid January. There might be times where eastern gulf countries like the UAE, Oman, and Qatar will experience cooler days! This warmer weather is not confined to Kuwait. In fact, the whole region is warmer, but it is more visible in northern Arabian Peninsula which is accustomed to cold winter and not a mild one. In the UAE winter has also been warmer than average, but I guess it is slightly above normal. And those frequent rain waves made things feel like winter.

• What is Next? Things have calmed down big time after Jan 1st, 2010 which brought heavy thunderstorms and hail to the UAE. A high pressure has taken control of the regional gulf weather. But cold weather has not yet made its way to the region as typical with every January and December. It seems Mr. Cold Air has decided to spend his winter vacation in Europe! And the outlook for the next 10 days is more calm mild sunny weather for the whole region with a bit of a warming trend sometimes. But, the UAE and northern Oman could experience a few isolated thundershowers between Sunday and Monday (very low chance) as an upper low dives in from NE Iran. Otherwise, things seem to be pretty calm.