Emirates Meteorology Blog

Shamal winds (winds blowing from North, or NW to be accurate) have already started blowing and will increase in intensity during the next 48 hours.  Meteo happiness index raised to 70%. A few highlights:

• Between Wednesday PM to Thursday AM, Arabian Gulf coastal winds will be around 40 Km/h with highest sustained winds reaching 50 Km/h, with the possibilty of gusts hitting 60 Km/h.
• UAE East coast along the gulf of Oman might experience stronger winds due to downsloping of the mountains (winds moving down the slope of the mountains, during which they get faster but also warmer)
• offshore in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, winds will easily exceed 60 Km/h
• Chance of a duststorm
• High temperature will struggle to exceed 22c with the possibity of high temperature not exceeding 19c on Thursday. But in the East coast of the UAE, temperature might still reach mid 20s due to downsloping winds
• Wind chill will make it feel even cooler than the recorded temperature, especially in cities along the Arabian Gulf
• Sea condition will be extremely rough with high waves
• Minimum temperature on Friday and Saturday could fall below 10c in inland areas
• The weather will quickly warm up by the start of next week
• keep in mind the possibilty of winds exceeding the forecasted speed (it happened before) which could result in periods of Gale force winds reaching 70 Km/h; however, it is unlikely
• Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman will all experience cooler weather (probably the coldest this winter) and breezy conditions

Sunday could bring showers to Kuwait and northern Arabian Gulf, southern Iraq, and southern Iran.

Starting Monday, very cold upper air associated with an upper air low approaching Iran, will unleash more rain and snow over Iran and Iraq.

On Tuesday, this cold front starts crossing the Arabian Gulf region, but sadly, there will be little moisture for this cold front to tap on. Therefore, there will just be some clouds with a small chance of rain in the northern parts of the UAE and Oman.

Between Sunday and Tuesday, it will be very warm in the UAE with near-record highs.

Nevertheless, cold air behind the low is going to suddenly cool the whole region starting Tuesday for northern Arabian Gulf such as Kuwait. On Wednesday, cool air arrives to the UAE and … Continue reading Outlook for the Next 5 Days; Potential for a cold wave and strong winds in the Arabian Gulf Region »»»

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Recap:
There have been more than 10 death cases in Egypt due to the flood in addition to damage to properties. There have also been casualities and/or damage in Palestine, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. There is an unconfirmed report of more than 200mm of rain falling in Sinai.

Photo of Flood in Egypt (source: storm.ae)

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This is what I like about the weather. There are no strict rules the weather has to follow. The element of surprise is always there, and there could always be extreme weather anywhere in the world. At such times, one wonders if the definition of “average weather” has any meaning at all.

Anyways, extreme weather happens when the right ingredients come at the right time and in the right place, potentially resulting in a natural disaster often in the wrong place. And this time, extreme weather has decided to pay Egypt, one of the driest places on earth, a nasty visit!

Rainfall in Egypt is mainly confined to a narrow area along north coast (i.e. Alexandria) where Middeteranian lows hardly graze the north coasts. While average rainfall along the north coast can reach 200mm per year, rainfall amount drops significantly in interior areas of Egypt, where Cairo hardly received 10mm of rain per year, if nothing at all, due to very dry desert air, which makes all cold fronts very dry ones. South of Cairo, only a trace of rain is recorded, or in most cases no rain at all. Some areas can experience no rain for several years.

Egypt-map

But tomorrow (Sunday Jan 17, 2010), a deep upper low that will dive more southward than normal, drawing with it lots of equatorial moisture, and mixing it with cold air aloft, will result in a wide area of extreme rainfall and strong thunderstorms in the eastern half of the interior region of Egypt. Many areas could exceed 50mm of rain within the span of 24 hours only (if not less than 12 hours). And should strong thunderstorms hit, there could be as much as 100mm or 150mm in those areas. With such a very unstable atmosphere, it is hard to pinpoint exaclty where extreme rainfall will hit, but the NE quadrant of Egypt from all the way from the north coast to the mid interior areas of Egypt could experience very heavy rain. But the mountaineous areas of Egypt should really watch out for runoffs and flash floods. I can’t imagine what exactly will happen in an area that hardly receives 10 mm or no rain per year.

500mb heights Moday 00:00 GMT Jan 17, 2010

Rainfall on Sunday Jan 17, 2010

Rain and thunderstorms will also spread quickly to other countries … Continue reading Powerful Thunderstorms and Rain to Hit Egypt Jan 17 and 18, 2010 »»»