Emirates Meteorology Blog

A deep 500mb upper low with cold air aloft is quickly diving southward from the Middeteranian towards the Arabian Gulf (from Wednesday Dec 30th to Saturday Jan 2nd). During its track it is going to unleash powerful thunderstorms and heavy rain over western Iran and southern half of Iraq especially the iraq/iran border where more than 2 inches of rain is possible. Thunderstorms (though not as strong) will also erupt over Kuwait and NE Saudi Arabia near the Kuwaiti border. Between Thursday Dec31st and Friday Jan1st, Bahrain and Qatar will have a chance of thundershowers as the upper low dives to the eastern shores of the Arabian Gulf.

500mb low on Jan 1st, 2010

On Friday, the upper low and its associated surface fronts start crossing the UAE bringing cloudy conditions with periods of scaterred showers or thunderstorms. Highest chance are the coastal areas. Since there is not high level of moisture for this low pressure system to feed on, it is unlikely that widespread heavy rain is going to fall like Dec 13, 2009. However, there is the potential for strong thunderstorms as the 500mb low is deep and cold enough to result in some strong thunderstorms that could contain hail, but they will likely be scaterred. Therefore, the coastal areas are favored since sea moisture will enhance thunderstorm formation offshore, especially over northern UAE. Overall expected rainfall is less than 10mm, but thunderstorms could dump much more rainfall should they develop.