Fall and Winter Seasonal forecast for Arabia
First of all, meteorological Autumn has begun on Sep 1st. Temperatures should start declining, but very slowly. And since humidity picks up in the UAE during September, a change in real feel temperature is not likely.
Anyway, looking ahead for the months of November to February during which westerlies start affecting Arabia, I will show below the corresponding seasonal forecast. With El Nino picking up, we might experience a different winter. Although not statistically proven, El Nino (particularly strong El Nino) years corresponds to wetter winters across Arabia. A great example is 1982 and 1995/1996 winters.
The US NWS/NCEP seasonal forecast predicts a wetter winter across most of Arabia and SW Asia with at least 50% above normal precipitation with the months of Jan-Mar being potentially 65-75% above normal in the UAE. Moreover the European ECMWF seasonal forecast also predicts a similar scenario with around 50-60% above normal precipitation across the Arabian Gulf countries, with the months of Nov-Feb being 60-70% above normal in the UAE. One more organization that issues seasonal forecasts is the IRI institute. Their forecasts predicts a drier winter, but I have seen them predicting such forecasts even for wet winters in the past few years. Maybe I like to believe what I want to believe. Temperature-wise, all seasonal forecasts predict warmer than normal weather (blame global warming).
What do I think? I expect a wetter winter and probably an early arrival of the westerlies and the arrival of jet stream.
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