First of all, meteorological Autumn has begun on Sep 1st. Temperatures should start declining, but very slowly. And since humidity picks up in the UAE during September, a change in real feel temperature is not likely.
Anyway, looking ahead for the months of November to February during which westerlies start affecting Arabia, I will show below the corresponding seasonal forecast. With El Nino picking up, we might experience a different winter. Although not statistically proven, El Nino (particularly strong El Nino) years corresponds to wetter winters across Arabia. A great example is 1982 and 1995/1996 winters.
The US NWS/NCEP seasonal forecast predicts a wetter winter across most of Arabia and SW Asia with at least 50% above normal precipitation with the months of Jan-Mar being potentially 65-75% above normal in the UAE. Moreover the European ECMWF seasonal forecast also predicts a similar scenario with around 50-60% above normal precipitation across the Arabian Gulf countries, with the months of Nov-Feb being 60-70% above normal in the UAE. One more organization that issues seasonal forecasts is the IRI institute. Their forecasts predicts a drier winter, but I have seen them predicting such forecasts even for wet winters in the past few years. Maybe I like to believe what I want to believe. Temperature-wise, all seasonal forecasts predict warmer than normal weather (blame global warming).
What do I think? I expect a wetter winter and probably an early arrival of the westerlies and the arrival of jet stream.
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