Thanks for your advice.
Before I get into more sailing details, I would like to present you my motivation why I want to leave Europe. I wrote a little piece on the following discussion board (my nickname: Jeroen45)
http://uiforum.uaeforum.org/showthread.php?p=124912#post124912

As for the route, you confirmed what I read earlier in Jimmy Cornell’s book ‘World Cruising Routes’ (http://www.noonsite.com) while your blog provides me much more details about those cyclones.

What about sailing the Arabian Sea a little later (January/ February)? I guess those cyclones (well documented on you blog!) should have passed then. The only drawback of this approuch would be that I arrive in Dubai when it’s hotter (March/April).

Should you be interested in weather patterns around the world, I can provide you some (basic) readings (PDF, in english) which are used by sailers worldwide for planning their voyages.

Assalamu Alaykum!

If I understood things correctly, you will emerge in the Gulf of Aden after leaving the Red Sea, then sailing northward in the Arabian Sea before entering the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Gulf where you find Dubai.

As for the weather, I agree with you that it is better to stay in the Middeteranian Sea in October and even November. While entering the Red Sea, it will get warmer as you sail southward. While the NE Monsoon should subside during autumn which means the Arabian Sea should be more stable, you have to keep an eye on potential (albeit low chance) development for cyclones in the Arabia Sea during October to December.During late October 2008, tropical cyclone 03B flooded Yemen with torrential rain. These tropical storms often move NW and affect Oman during Autumn.
And the best time to visit Dubai is between December and February. Good luck.

Keep up the good work with you site! I’m planning to sail from Eastern Europe to Dubai in the coming years and liked reading your very informing comment above. It looks most convenient to be around the Middeteranian till around late summer (October), then set down the Red Sea (November and December) and fighting headwind when the (very stable) NE monsoon is well established in January and February. Do you have any suggestions?

Jeroen (from Belgium)

Thanks for your nice comment. Late Feb and early Mar are the final days of winter. Although Feb & Mar are on average the wettest months in the UAE, there is a great variability from season to season. In the last few years we had more rain in Nov, Dec, & Jan. However, there is always the risk of thunderstorms in these 2 months. These thunderstorms, if any, are likely to be the result of a plunging jet stream and upper lows with cold fronts. Local summer convective activities don’t start until late May and they are concentrated along the mountains of the UAE and Oman.
To summarize, the chance is definetly there, but less likely as we approach the end of winter as the jet stream travels to the north. 2 years back we had a cold front affecting the UAE & Oman with more than 100mm falling from thunderstorms on Mar 17, 2007. We even had a nasty cold front on Apr 16, 2003 with wind gust exceeding 100 Km/h.

Keep visiting my post for updates on the weather forecast.

Ahmed

I am a weather fan from Berlin, Germany and just came across your nice weather blog today. I enjoy very much photographing clouds and thunderstorms. I will visit Dubai and eastern Oman from February 25 until March 6th and I am curious if I will be lucky enough to encounter any convective events!

Your blog is an excellent source of information for me. Would be nice to stay in touch!

Cheers,
Christian