Rain and thunderstorms to hit the UAE and parts of Oman on Jan 23 & 24 2009
A very cold upper low coupled with a lower than normal freezing level will result in rain and thunderstorms affecting a wide area of the UAE on Friday and early Saturday Jan 23 – 24, 2009.
According to the NCMS model, rainfall amounts could hit 25 mmof rain in Sharjah and Dubai. In Ras Al Khaymah it could exceed 50mm (!!) but in Abu Dhabi it migh be near 5 mm. According to the GFS model, rainfall amounts are between 10 and 15 mm along the Arabian Gulf coast (including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah) with higher amounts in extreme Northern UAE (Ras Al Khaymah 15 to 20 mm).
I think that generally rainfall amounts will be between 10 and 20 mm in Northern UAE with locally exceesive amounts due to strong thunderstorms especially in mountaineous areas.
Rain is also forecasted to affect Musandam (Oman) and NW Oman.
According to Jim Andrews, International weather forecaster at Accuweather.com:
A strong upper trough and cold front will swing southeastward over the Khaleej–the Mideast Gulf–between Thursday and Saturday. The gulf itself will afford moisture and warmth enough to trigger showers and thunderstorms starting roughly at mid gulf, then blossoming eastward to UAE, far-northern Oman and much of southern Iran. Breakout of these rains will likely begin in the area of Qatar, Bahrain and nearby Saudi Arabia. Unusually low freezing level will raise the likelihood that hail will be seen in any stronger thunderstorm. And snow may be seen once again along the spine of the Musandam Peninsula and the Jabal Akhdar of Oman. Snow will reach the floors of some southern Iran desert basins.
Another aspect of this trough and cold front will be the cold snap it will instigate over northern Arabia, southern Iraq and southern Iran.
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- 3-hour rainfall ending at 1300 UAE time (NCMS)
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- 3-hour rainfall ending at 1600 UAE time (NCMS)
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- 3-hour rainfall ending at 1900 UAE time (NCMS)
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- 3-hour rainfall ending at 2200 UAE time (NCMS)
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- 3-hour rainfall ending at 0100 Jan 24 UAE time (NCMS)
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- 3-hour rainfall ending at 0400 Jan 24 UAE time (NCMS)
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- 24-hour rain forecast ending at 0400 Jan 24 UAE local time (GFS)
Hi Ahmed,
I am a weather fan from Berlin, Germany and just came across your nice weather blog today. I enjoy very much photographing clouds and thunderstorms. I will visit Dubai and eastern Oman from February 25 until March 6th and I am curious if I will be lucky enough to encounter any convective events!
Your blog is an excellent source of information for me. Would be nice to stay in touch!
Cheers,
Christian
Hi Christian,
Thanks for your nice comment. Late Feb and early Mar are the final days of winter. Although Feb & Mar are on average the wettest months in the UAE, there is a great variability from season to season. In the last few years we had more rain in Nov, Dec, & Jan. However, there is always the risk of thunderstorms in these 2 months. These thunderstorms, if any, are likely to be the result of a plunging jet stream and upper lows with cold fronts. Local summer convective activities don’t start until late May and they are concentrated along the mountains of the UAE and Oman.
To summarize, the chance is definetly there, but less likely as we approach the end of winter as the jet stream travels to the north. 2 years back we had a cold front affecting the UAE & Oman with more than 100mm falling from thunderstorms on Mar 17, 2007. We even had a nasty cold front on Apr 16, 2003 with wind gust exceeding 100 Km/h.
Keep visiting my post for updates on the weather forecast.
Ahmed
Hi Ahmed,
Keep up the good work with you site! I’m planning to sail from Eastern Europe to Dubai in the coming years and liked reading your very informing comment above. It looks most convenient to be around the Middeteranian till around late summer (October), then set down the Red Sea (November and December) and fighting headwind when the (very stable) NE monsoon is well established in January and February. Do you have any suggestions?
Jeroen (from Belgium)
Hi Jeroen,
First I have to say that I’m impressed by your sail trip plans. It sounds exciting.
If I understood things correctly, you will emerge in the Gulf of Aden after leaving the Red Sea, then sailing northward in the Arabian Sea before entering the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Gulf where you find Dubai.
As for the weather, I agree with you that it is better to stay in the Middeteranian Sea in October and even November. While entering the Red Sea, it will get warmer as you sail southward. While the NE Monsoon should subside during autumn which means the Arabian Sea should be more stable, you have to keep an eye on potential (albeit low chance) development for cyclones in the Arabia Sea during October to December.During late October 2008, tropical cyclone 03B flooded Yemen with torrential rain. These tropical storms often move NW and affect Oman during Autumn.
And the best time to visit Dubai is between December and February. Good luck.
Hi Ahmed,
Thanks for your advice.
Before I get into more sailing details, I would like to present you my motivation why I want to leave Europe. I wrote a little piece on the following discussion board (my nickname: Jeroen45)
http://uiforum.uaeforum.org/showthread.php?p=124912#post124912
As for the route, you confirmed what I read earlier in Jimmy Cornell’s book ‘World Cruising Routes’ (http://www.noonsite.com) while your blog provides me much more details about those cyclones.
What about sailing the Arabian Sea a little later (January/ February)? I guess those cyclones (well documented on you blog!) should have passed then. The only drawback of this approuch would be that I arrive in Dubai when it’s hotter (March/April).
Should you be interested in weather patterns around the world, I can provide you some (basic) readings (PDF, in english) which are used by sailers worldwide for planning their voyages.
Assalamu Alaykum!
Hi Jeroen,
Regarding Arabia Sea cyclones. First, the number of tropical storms that form there every year is very minimal. There are two periods of cyclone there (May-June & October-And Oman and Yemen don’t get tropical storms regulary. And if they do form, they struggle to exceed the tropical storm level and make it to a category 1 cyclone. And they form mostly in SE Arabian Sea, then move to the west or northwest. What I’m trying to say is that the chances of being stopped by a cyclone is low but not zero. And I would recommend you aim for a winter arrival in Dubai. Maybe you need to think of a plan of what you should do in case a tropical storm arrives, like staying a few days in nearby land.
I strongly advise you to read this to know more about Arabian Sea cyclones http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season
Note that 2007 was unusually active.